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Spencer Dale, Athanasios Orphanides, and Pär Österholm

ever-increasing amounts of noisy and complex information. As central banks seek to continue their progress towards greater openness, these costs and benefits – and their implications for the design of central bank communications –need to be better understood. This paper considers the potential benefits and limitations of central bank communications in a model which emphasizes two important features of the practical environment in which central banks operate. First, it recognizes that monetary policy is conducted against a backdrop of imperfect knowledge: Central

Athanasios Orphanides, Spencer Dale, and Pär Österholm
Much of the information communicated by central banks is noisy or imperfect. This paper considers the potential benefits and limitations of central bank communications in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning. It is shown that the value of communicating imperfect information is ambiguous. There is a risk that the central bank can distract the public; this means that the central bank may prefer to focus its communication policies on the information it knows most about. Indeed, conveying more certain information may improve the public's understanding to the extent that it "crowds out" a role for communicating imperfect information.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
IMF pandemic preparations; enlarged EU: labor, capital; Asia outlook bright; India: reforms and growth; Italy: gloomy outlook; IMF sanctions on Zimbabwe; Friedman: morals, growth; central bank communications; effective use of increased aid.
Athanasios Orphanides, Spencer Dale, and Pär Österholm

Quarterly Model . Bank of England , London . Issing , O. ( 1999 ): “ The Eurosystem: Transparent and Accountable or ’Willem in Euroland’? ,” Journal of Common Market Studies , 37 , 503 – 519 . 10.1111/1468-5965.00175 Issing , O. ( 2000 ): “ Communication Challenges for the ECB ,” Speech given at the CFS Conference ‘The ECB and Its Watchers’ , June 26th . King , M. ( 2006 ): Speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants , London , June21st . Macklem , T. ( 2005 ): “ Commentary: Central Bank Communications and