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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, and Ms. Nicole Laframboise
This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, and Ms. Nicole Laframboise

. 2 Both Antigua and Barbuda and Barbados have historically served as connecting hubs for the Easter Caribbean sub-region. As airlift availability to the rest of the Caribbean has improved over time, with more direct connections and more frequent flights, their hub services have dwindled and their flight traffic has declined accordingly. 3 We define the vacancy rate as empty seats as a percent of total available seats. 4 Since the dataset used only includes direct flights between the U.S. and foreign airports, the data on the number of

Sebastian Acevedo, Nicole LaFramboise, and Joyce Wong

.00199 (0.001) 0.00293 (0.004) −0.00223 (0.002) ΔLn(number of airlines) 0.0205 (0.049) 0.0704*** (0.017) 0.1 (0.090) 0.0848** (0.027) ΔLn(number of hotel rooms) −0.207** (0.051) 0.103* (0.053) 0.0473 (0.049) 0.0805 (0.138) Observations 52 115 51 120 R 2 0.529 0.366 0.275 0.209 Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1 Annex 3.2 Airlift to the Caribbean Annex Table 3.2.1. U.S.-Caribbean Airlift Availability, 2014 Country

Sebastian Acevedo, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, Ms. Nicole Laframboise, and Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne

, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, which combined account for almost half of total flights to the Caribbean in our sample, have been increasing faster than those to other tourism-based countries. In contrast, flights to Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, and Barbados declined by almost 50 percent since mid-2000. 2 In 2014, Cancun and the Dominican Republic received the most number of flights, over 2,000 per month on average ( Table 1 ). Table 1. U.S.-Caribbean Airlift Availability, 2014 Country ISO 3-letter code Number of flights Number of