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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

1. On behalf of our Timorese authorities, we thank the mission team for the constructive dialogue and policy advice during this year’s Article IV consultation. The authorities highly appreciate the candid discussions with staff and all the support received from the Fund. 2. Since independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has achieved enormous progress in nation-building and social development. Our authorities strongly agree with staff that the country’s medium-term outlook will depend critically on economic diversification amid potentially declining hydrocarbon

International Monetary Fund

On behalf of the Timorese authorities, we wish to express our sincere gratitude and appreciation to the staff for the thorough, constructive, and insightful approach to this Article IV Consultation. The Timorese authorities welcome the IMF consultations, as well as the very interesting technical discussions and presentations to Timorese officials and staff, since they provide a unique opportunity to discuss policy options and IMF recommendations. 1. Introduction Timor-Leste has been gradually reinforcing its democratic institutions and maturity, but

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

1. On behalf of our Timorese authorities, we thank the new mission chief and his team for the constructive engagement and policy advice during this year’s Article IV consultation. Our authorities also thank the IMF for the valuable technical assistance that Timor-Leste has received through the years. 2. Timor-Leste is one of the youngest countries in the world and has made impressive progress in state-building and human development since its independence seventeen years ago. In this relatively short period, the country has consolidated a pluralist democratic

International Monetary Fund
Timor–Leste’s initial efforts to develop a stable and healthy economy have been interrupted by the civil unrest of the past two years. The security situation remains fragile and an economic burden. The key challenge remains how to manage the abundant petroleum revenue to alleviate near-term social problems and develop a sustainable non-oil economy. Growth has rebounded in 2007, although the civil unrest continues to undermine the economy. Inflation has risen sharply, but remains low relative to regional comparators. Access to financial services remains limited and credit growth has stalled.
International Monetary Fund
This 2009 Article IV Consultation on Timor-Leste highlights that the Timorese economy has posted high economic growth over the past two years, driven by rapid increases in government spending and a recovery in agriculture from a 2007 drought. Central government spending rose sharply in 2008, reflecting efforts to address pressing development needs and secure social cohesion. Executive Directors have welcomed the recently announced moderation in government spending. Directors have also supported the prudent approach toward widening the fund’s investment portfolio.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Timor-Leste remains a fragile post-conflict nation with weak human and institutional capacity and large infrastructure gaps. The main challenge facing Timor-Leste is to effectively manage its petroleum wealth to reduce public-sector dependence, diversify the non-oil economy, generate jobs for a young and rapidly-growing population, and raise living standards. Political uncertainty constrained public spending in 2017–18, resulting in a sharp contraction of non-oil GDP in 2017 and flat growth in 2018. The report discusses that risks to the outlook are closely tied to the success of fiscal and structural reforms to maintain macroeconomic stability, ensure long-run fiscal sustainability, and facilitate economic diversification. The consultation recommends that a fiscal strategy should be pursued to improve expenditure control and efficiency, mobilize domestic revenue, and commit to protecting the wealth of the Petroleum Fund. Ongoing efforts to strengthen public financial management and promote good governance are crucial to ensure public investment efficiency and enhance the quality of public services.
International Monetary Fund

On behalf of the Timorese authorities, we thank staff for the insightful 2009 Article IV and Selected Issues reports, and for the constructive dialog. The authorities regret the Fund’s decision of terminating the position of Resident Representative in Timor-Leste (closed in the end of June). We would like to express the authorities’ appreciation for the competence and personal engagement of the Fund’s Resident Representative, and to wish him success in his new tasks at the Fund. The Fund’s technical assistance is extremely valuable in Timor-Leste and the

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses recent economic developments, economic outlook, and risks in Timor-Leste. Growth has moderated while inflation has fallen sharply. Owing to a sharp fall in oil revenues and large development needs, Timor-Leste is facing difficult policy challenges. According to industry estimates, unless new oil reserves are developed, oil production is expected to decline further and cease by 2023. Prioritization of government expenditures to facilitate high-return infrastructure investments is key in tandem with structural reforms that catalyze nonoil private sector growth. The 2016 budget outlined a significant scaling up of the public investment in 2017–19, which will strain fiscal sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept