Ms. Dora Benedek, Mr. Edward R Gemayel, Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, and Alexander F. Tieman
The COVID-19 pandemic hit countries’ development agendas hard. The ensuing recession has pushed millions into extreme poverty and has shrunk government resources available for spending on achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This Staff Discussion Note assesses the current state of play on funding SDGs in five key development areas: education, health, roads, electricity, and water and sanitation, using a newly developed dynamic macroeconomic framework.
Front Matter Page Asia Pacific Department
II. Vietnam’s Development Success
A. Macroeconomy and Structural Transformation
B. Success Stories by Sector
III. Assessing Vietnam’s Spending Needs for the 2030 SDGs
A. Spending Needs in the Social Sectors
B. Spending Needs in Infrastructure
IV. Medium Term Financing Strategy
1. SDGPerformance in Vietnam and Comparator Countries
2. Selected Sustainable Development Goals Performance
3. Gini Coefficient and Poverty Headcount
Ms. Dora Benedek, Mr. Edward R Gemayel, Abdelhak S Senhadji, and Alexander F. Tieman
8. SDGPerformance in Selected Countries, 2020
9. Rwanda: Pandemic-Related Output Losses
10. Fiscal Support in Response to the Pandemic
11. Additional Annual Financing Needs to Meet the SDGs
12. Estimated Change in Inequality due to Covid-19
13. Distribution of Tax to GDP Ratios, 2019
14. 2020 Tax Revenue Projections, Before and After the Pandemic
15. Losses from Poor Infrastructure Governance
16. Global Assets Under Management
17. Rwanda: Private Participation in Infrastructure
18. Foreign Direct Investment in LIDCs
19. Evolution of Official
Johanna Tiedemann, Veronica Piatkov, Dinar Prihardini, Juan Carlos Benitez, Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, and Mr. James Daniel
of 2030 GDP), then the Pacific (6.5 percent of 2030 GDP), and SSA and MENA (6.2 percent of 2030 GDP) SDS.
A multitude of factors—such as country-specific unit costs, SDGperformance and targets— explains cost variations. Climate resilience is also an important cost driver. Rehabilitation, upgrades, and maintenance of existing infrastructure inflate these spending requirements. Our results show that meeting SDGs often requires improving spending efficiency and reallocation, particularly in SDS with already significant health and education spending.
While SDS can
up to 2030 would be significantly larger. After 2030, education and health spending would recur, whereas infrastructure spending would be expected to decline to cover depreciation of the capital stock built through 2030.
8 In Guatemala, education spending in 2030 consistent with good SDGperformance is 7 percent of GDP. This is higher than in good performing countries today reflecting a higher projected share of student age population and higher target enrollment rate.
9 Secondary education in Guatemala comprises three years of general education (basic
Johanna Tiedemann, Veronica Piatkov, Dinar Prihardini, Juan Carlos Benitez, and Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka
Small Developing States (SDS) face substantial challenges in achieving sustainable development. Many of these challenges relate to the small size and limited diversification of their economies. SDS are also among the most vulnerable countries to the impact of climate change and natural disasters. Meeting SDS sustainable development goals goes hand-in-hand with building their climate resilience. But the additional costs to meet development and resilience objectives are substantial and difficult to finance. This work adapts the IMF SDG Costing methodology to capture the unique characteristics and challenges of climate-vulnerable SDS. It also zooms into financing options, estimating domestic tax potential and discussing the possibility of accessing ‘climate funds.’
the quality of its infrastructure, with a score of 4.7 compared to a median score of 2.9 across SSA countries. However, high-performing SSA countries reach only median levels achieved by emerging economies.
Additional Spending Estimates
Estimates of the spending required to reach the SDGs for 37 SSA countries are derived following the methodology developed by Gaspar and others (2019) . The methodology quantifies the annual cost of achieving high SDGperformance in five sectors—education, health, water and sanitation, electricity and roads—( Box 1
achieve 80 percent in tests aimed at ten-year-old pupils. 9 Overall, Nigeria’s score in the index used to measure education SDGperformance falls far below the median for low-income and developing economies ( Figure 3.b ).
Figure 3. Education Inputs and Outcomes Comparison
Source: IMF staff estimates using Sachs, J., Schmidt-Traub, G., Kroll, C., Lafortune, G., Fuller, G. (2019): Sustainable Development Report 2019 .
Note: Peers include Cameroon, Ghana, India, and Zimbabwe.
9. To address these challenges and make meaningful progress toward SDG4, Nigeria
Creating Fiscal Space During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Nigeria 1
1. The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified health and social spending pressures, especially given pre-existing weaknesses of the public health system and social safety nets . Nigeria’s score in the index used to measure health SDGperformance falls below the median for low-income economics. Total health spending is relatively low, with government spending in health being one of the lowest in the world, amounting to $US10 per capita or just 0.5 percent of GDP in 2017 (latest
percent per year) for Vietnam. In addition, we adopted higher benchmarks for Vietnam reflecting its relatively good SDGperformance. Vietnam is benchmarked against a higher income group for education and health care and the threshold for the reference SDG health care index is increased to 80.
Appendix IV. IMF’s New Initiatives Under the 2030 Development Agenda
In 2015, the IMF has committed to new initiatives as part of the 2030 Development Agenda to support countries in the areas of strengthening resource mobilization, building state capacity for infrastructure