International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic performance of the United Arab Emirates was subdued during most of 2016. Together with weaker oil prices and slower oil output growth, the postponement of some public infrastructure projects and a slowdown in global trade caused growth to moderate to 3 percent from 3.8 percent in 2015. Economic activity is expected to strengthen gradually in the coming years with firming oil prices and other global indicators, and an easing pace of fiscal consolidation. Non-oil growth is projected to rise to 3.3 percent in 2017 from 2.7 percent in 2016, reflecting increased domestic public investment and a pickup in global trade.
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have increased rapidly in emerging and developing countries, creating both opportunities and fiscal challenges. One of the main challenges is that while governments have increased commitments in guarantees and direct subsidies to promote PPPs, contractual disputes remain high with significant costs. This paper examines how fiscal institutions affect the selection of PPP contracts and the probability of contract disputes using about 6,000 PPP contract-level data. The analysis shows that larger government financing needs, lower budget transparency and bureaucratic efficiency are associated with higher probability for governments to offer guarantees. Propensity score matching results show that disputes are more common for guaranteed contracts due to adverse selection and contingent liability effects. PPP management quality and budget transparency are found to be key determinants for a longer survival of PPPs.
Mr. M. Cangiano, Mr. Barry Anderson, Mr. Max Alier, Murray Petrie, and Mr. Richard Hemming
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) refer to arrangements under which the private sector supplies infrastructure assets and infrastructure-based services that traditionally have been provided by the government. PPPs are used for a wide range of economic and social infrastructure projects, but they are used mainly to build and operate roads, bridges and tunnels, light rail networks, airports and air traffic control systems, prisons, water and sanitation plants, hospitals, schools, and public buildings. PPPs offer benefits similar to those offered by privatization, which is the sale of government-owned enterprises or assets. By the late 1990s, when privatization was losing much of its earlier momentum, PPPs began to be widely seen as a means of obtaining private sector capital and management expertise for infrastructure investment. After a modest start, a wave of PPPs is now beginning to sweep the world. This Special Issue paper provides an overview of some of the issues raised by PPPs, with a particular focus on their fiscal consequences. It also looks at government guarantees, which are used fairly widely to shield the private sector from risk and are a common feature of PPPs. And it examines the consequences of PPPs and guarantees for debt sustainability. The paper concludes with a list of measures that can maximize the benefits and minimize the fiscal risks associated with the use of PPPs. Various appendices augment the discussion by examining country experiences with PPPs, summarizing the statistical reporting framework used to discuss fiscal accounting and reporting, explaining accounting for risk transfer, examining how guarantees are modeled and estimated in Chile, and summarizing international accounting and reporting standards for contingent liabilities.
Checks in Alternative Specifications
D. Role of Public Financial Management
1. Overall Trend of PPPInvestments
2. Evolution of Dispute Risk
3. Change in Government Financial Commitment
4. Sectoral Distribution of Each Instruments
5. Change in Hazard Ratio by Contract Types
6. Distribution of the Quality Scores on Fiscal Institutions
1. Determinants of Government’s Financial Commitment
2. Parametric Hazard Regressions
3. Effect of the Quality of Fiscal Institutions
2. An Exogenous increase in German Private Consumption
TOWARDS A BETTER INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN GERMANY: THE ROLE OF PPPS
A. Current Public Investment Patterns
B. Use of Public Private Partnerships (PPP) in Germany
C. Towards a Better Institutional Framework for PPPs
1. Germany: Public Investment Trends
2. PPPInvestment Contracts by Level of Government, 2002April 2015
WOMEN IN THE LABOR MARKET AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE
A. The Challenge of an Aging Society