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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

-to-GDP ratio rises slightly further in the long term, reflecting a gradual increase in real interest rates as the concessionality of debt is assumed to decline steadily. By FY36 the debt-to-GDP ratio will be about 41 percent of GDP as compared with 35 percent of GDP in FY15. As in the case of the external DSA, all associated total PPG debt indicators remain well within the benchmark value under the baseline and for all standard stress tests ( Figure 2 and Tables 4 - 5 ). Debt indicators drift upwards if primary deficits (as a share of GDP) remain fixed over the entire

Mr. Dominique Desruelle, Mr. Kevin Fletcher, and Paloma Anos-Casero

.05 Medium CI > 3.05 Strong External and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis 9. External Debt Sustainability Analysis. Under the baseline scenario, the debt service-to-revenue ratio breaches the threshold for two years (2022-23) because of the amortization schedule of currently contracted loans. The other external PPG debt indicators remain below the policy relevant thresholds. Sensitivity analysis show that external debt remains sensitive to both export and growth shocks. Unsurprisingly, a large export shock leads to significant increases in the

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

captured under the country’s public debt definition (1.). If it is already included in the government debt (1.) and risks associated with SoE’s debt not guaranteed by the government is assessed to be negligible, a country team may reduce this to 0%. Debt Sustainability A. External Debt Sustainability Analysis 12. Under the baseline scenario, all external PPG debt indicators remain below the policy relevant thresholds for the next ten years ( Figure 1 ) . The PV of debt-to GDP ratio is expected to increase gradually from 5.3 percent in 2017 to 15

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Score 2.72 100% CI rating Medium Debt Sustainability A. External Debt Sustainability Analysis 10. Under the baseline scenario, all external PPG debt indicators remain below the policy relevant thresholds for the next twenty years ( Figure 1 ) . Given that fiscal sustainability concerns can arise well-beyond the standard ten-year DSA horizon, debt dynamics for each scenario are presented over the next twenty years. The PV of the PPG debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase gradually from 4

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

—Staff Scenarios, 2018–2028 Source: IMF staff estimates. External and Public Debt Sustainability 11. All external PPG debt indicators remain below the policy relevant thresholds in the baseline scenario ( Figure 1 ) . The PV of external debt-to GDP ratio is expected to grow gradually and then decline from 12.3 percent in FY 2018 to around 10 percent over the projection period corresponding to new disbursements for key infrastructure projects, including those envisioned under the MSDP. However, the standardized stress tests show that a shock to non-debt flows has

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Analysis 17. All external PPG debt indicators remain below the policy relevant thresholds in the baseline scenario ( Figure 1 and Table 1 ). These thresholds include the present value (PV) of the external-debt-to-GDP ratio, the PV of the external-debt-to-exports ratio, the external-debt-service-to-exports ratio, and the external-debt-service-to-revenue ratio. The PV of PPG external debt-to GDP ratio is gradually declining from 11.3 percent of GDP in FY 2019/20 to around 9.2 percent of GDP in FY 2029/30. Both debt service-to-exports and debt service-to-revenue ratio

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

://www.ogj.com/exploration-development/discoveries/article/17296507/total-updates-shwe-yee-htun2-gas-appraisal-offshore-myanmar . External and Public Debt Sustainability 8. All external PPG debt indicators remain below the policy relevant thresholds in the baseline scenario ( Figure 1 ) . The PV of external debt-to GDP ratio is gradually declining from 12.0 percent of GDP in FY2018/19 to around 10.0 percent of GDP over the projection period. Standardized stress tests show that slowdown in exports and FDI negatively impact the PV of debt-to-GDP ratio, PV of debt-to-exports ratio and the debt service-to-exports ratio

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

. The ratio will remain below the 55 percent threshold under the baseline scenario throughout the projection period. Similarly, debt service indicators remain well below their respective thresholds and on a broadly downward trend over the medium-term. Improvements in debt-management practices envisaged under the authorities’ reforms will give further resilience to shocks affecting debt service needs. A tailored stress test for the contingent liability shock also does not cause any breach of relevant thresholds. Under the most extreme scenario, most PPG debt indicators

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

has the capacity to repay these arrears over time. São Tomé and Príncipe continues to actively seek rescheduling agreements with the creditors. 11. Compared with the last DSA, there are fewer threshold breaches of external PPG debt indicators, while the total PPG debt indicators have deteriorated . All external PPG debt indicators remain below their respective thresholds under the baseline scenario. These results can be attributed largely to a stronger debt-carrying capacity based on the revised Composite Indicator under the new DSF and the associated higher

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

2018-23 to about 2.7 percent of GDP in the long run (2024–38). External Debt Sustainability Results 8. The present value (PV) of the external PPG debt-to-exports ratio is expected to narrowly breach the policy threshold over 2018-19 years. 3 The breach has noticeably shortened compared to the 2017 DSA due mainly to debt relief and or rescheduling provided by some external creditors. All other external PPG debt indicators remain below their respective thresholds under the baseline scenario. The low level of debt service related indicators is essentially