was a strong growth of the agricultural sector, which continued the following year, and, combined with the startup of the Kumtorgoldmine, led to a real GDP growth rate of almost 10 percent in 1997. During 1998, growth slowed down to about 2 percent reflecting the leveling-off of the Kumtor production, lower than the expected agricultural output and the impact of the financial turmoil in Russia. 1 2
5. The official estimate of the private sector share of GDP has increased from 66 percent in 1995 to 76 percent in 1997. However, this estimate is based on a very
This paper reviews economic developments in the Kyrgyz Republic during 1995–99. After having contracted by about 50 percent between 1992 and 1995, real GDP recovered strongly in 1996, with a growth rate of more than 7 percent. The main source behind this increase was a strong growth of the agricultural sector, which continued the following year, and, combined with the startup of the Kumtor gold mine, led to a real GDP growth rate of almost 10 percent in 1997. During 1998, growth slowed down to about 2 percent.
This occasional paper provides an overview of the economic reform experiences of the Central Asian states of the former Soviet Union since their independence at the turn of the decade. The choice of countries reflects not only a geographical grouping, but also similarities in the types of transition challenges faced by these countries notwithstanding considerable variations in their sizes, ethnic composition, resource endowments, and economic structures. The paper attempts to identify a number of key macroeconomic and structural areas where the slower reformers in the group might benefit from the experience of the faster reformes.
indicate that real GDP grew by 7.1 percent in 2004, compared to the projected 6.0 percent. Excluding operations of the Kumtorgoldmine and the energy sector, real GDP growth reached 7.6 percent. Average consumer price inflation was 4.1 percent, as projected.
The general government fiscal deficit declined from 5.2 percent of GDP in 2003 to 4.1 percent in 2004—slightly lower than expected. Broad money growth (34 percent) was higher than projected (29 percent), with bank deposits increasing faster than anticipated.
Regarding regional trade policies, in early February
The following information has become available since the staff report was issued on October 7, 2005. It does not change the thrust of the staff appraisal.
Preliminary data suggest that real GDP declined by 0.4 percent in January-September 2005 (year on year), compared with a growth rate of 2.4 percent in January-June. Excluding operations of the Kumtorgoldmine and the energy sector, real GDP increased by 1.1 percent. The growth of nominal GDP, however, was broadly in line with the staff’s projection. The 12-month rate of consumer price inflation was 4
The following information has become available since the staff report was issued on October 20, 2006. It does not change the thrust of the staff appraisal.
1. Economic activity has continued to rebound, with year-on-year real GDP growth of 3.2 percent through September. Output growth excluding the Kumtorgoldmine (which suffered a serious accident) exceeded 6 percent, led by construction and services. Twelve-month inflation in September edged up to 5.3 percent. Faced with buoyant remittances and short-term capital inflows, the National Bank has continued
financial crisis, but accelerated to over 5 percent in 2000 and 2001. In 2002, real GDP declined slightly for temporary reasons. First, a large landslide in the Kumtorgoldmine prevented access to high grade ore reducing the value added of mining by 37 percent. 2 Second, energy production fell by 7 percent as demand for water from the Kyrgyz reservoirs for irrigation was exceptionally low in the neighboring countries. 3 Agriculture, industry, and the services sector have been driving the growth in 1996-2002. Within agriculture, the output of grain, tobacco, fruit and
The Kyrgyz Republic has enjoyed strong economic performance since the last Article IV consultation in February 2003. Real GDP growth was 6.7 percent in 2003 and 7 percent in January-September 2004. Economic activity is becoming more broad-based, and annual real GDP growth outside the Kumtorgoldmine and the energy sector has been steadily at or above 4 percent since 2000. Productivity improvements, including greater capacity utilization, have made an important contribution to growth, although investment has been an important factor this year
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
. Outside the Kumtorgoldmine and the energy sector, real GDP has grown steadily around 4 percent since 2000, while the official poverty rate has fallen to 41 from 52 percent.
Annual inflation has declined since 2000, and the external current account deficits in 2002 and 2003 were about 2.5 percent of GDP with imports and exports growing rapidly. The IMF’s Executive Board urged the government to continue fiscal discipline, while ensuring adequate spending on poverty reduction. The 2001-04 Paris Club debt rescheduling had allowed for more pro-poor and social spending