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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

lending −6 −6 Primary balance −163 −163 Primary balance net of PAK −155 −155 Interest income, net −18 −18 Overall balance −181 −181 Financing 181 181 Foreign financing −5 7 Domestic financing 186 174 Bank balance (prog.; − = increase) −220 −222 Financing gap 0 0 Sources: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Rakia Moalla-Fetini, Mr. Shehadah Hussein, Mr. Heikki Hatanpaa, and Natasha Koliadina

Secretary-General (SRSG) retains the final authority “to set the financial and policy parameters for, and to approve” the budget. 1 Figure III.1. Consolidated General Government: Revenues, Expenditures, and Cash Balances, 2000–03 (In millions of euros) Source: Kosovo authorities. Budgeting on a commitment basis, which served Kosovo well initially, is the main reason for the lack of progress in elaborating a fiscal strategy. Right after the end of the conflict, annual balanced budgets were built on extremely conservative revenue projections, and, to guard

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

On behalf of the Kosovo authorities, we would like to thank staff for the excellent report on the first review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and for the constructive dialogue and valuable advice during the recent missions to Pristina. The authorities appreciate the quality of engagement with Fund staff, which has been tremendously beneficial, and express their appreciation to Fund management and the Executive Board for their continued support. The authorities broadly agree with staff’s assessment outlined in the report. In recent weeks, the

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

to risk weighted assets 6/ 18.1 17.0 15.9 16.7 … … … … … Memorandum items: GDP (millions of euros) 6,414 6,726 7,104 6,817 7,101 7,606 8,051 8,533 9,027 Real GDP growth per capita 3.4 4.1 4.5 -6.4 4.1 5.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 Sources: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ World Bank’s Poverty headcount ratio at US$3.20 a day (2011 PPP). 2/ 2020 as of Q3 2020. 3/ The Fiscal rule excludes capital investment financed by

International Monetary Fund

,649 4,966 5,275 GDP per capita (euros) 2,323 2,325 2,468 2,070 2,682 2,822 2,953 GNDI per capita (euros) 2,749 2,650 2,829 2,376 3,079 3,224 3,386 Population (thousands) 7/ 1,658 1,683 1,708 2,256 1,734 1,760 1,786 Sources: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ Projections assume that grants from the EC and IDA will be received in 2011–14. 2/ Based on World Bank estimates. 3/ Savings-investment balance of entire economy, including donor sector. 4

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Kosovo’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the associated containment measures have severely weakened Kosovo’s economic outlook. The economy is expected to contract by 5 percent in 2020 as tourism receipts, remittances, exports of goods, and foreign direct investments will decrease due to travel restrictions and the effect of COVID-19 in trading partners and remittance-originating countries. The deteriorated economic outlook is expected to result in external and fiscal financing gaps. The RFI provides rapid and low-access financial assistance to member countries facing an urgent balance of payments need, without the need for a full-fledged economic program or reviews. It can provide support to meet a broad range of urgent needs, including those arising from commodity price shocks, natural disasters, conflict and post-conflict situations. Financial assistance under the RFI is provided in the form of outright purchases.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

benefits from restraining public wage growth as observed in Kosovo would have more than compensated. Actual vs. simulated increases of the public wage bill under alternative rules-based mechanisms Source: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates. 16. At the same time, they felt the fiscal rule does not give enough recognition to Kosovo’s development needs . The authorities expressed their strong commitment to macro-fiscal stability, pointing to the freeze in wages at 2014 levels and the recent increase in excise taxes. More generally, they committed to

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Population (thousands) 1815 1842 1838 1866 1894 1922 1951 1980 2010 2040 Sources: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ Includes capital spending by publicly-owned enterprises via onlending from the general government. 2/ Total foreign assistance excluding capital transfers. 3/ Kosovo neither recognizes nor services nor tracks this debt. Table 2. Kosovo: Consolidated Government Budget, 2013–22 1/ (Excluding donor designated grants; millions of euros; cumulative from the

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Kosovo’s Second and Third Reviews under the Stand-by Arrangement, and Request for Program Extension. Economic performance remains positive, with growth estimated at 3.5 percent in 2016 and projected at similar levels in 2017. Fiscal deficits remain contained, with strong tax revenues limiting the impact from rising pensions for war veterans. All performance criteria and indicative targets for December 2015 and June 2016 were met with comfortable margins. Given this progress, the IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the second and third reviews.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Kosovo has proven relatively resilient and stronger than in its western Balkan neighbors, averaging slightly more than 3 percent over the last five years. Steady remittances from the diaspora living in advanced European economies continue to be a key driver of growth, supporting as they have private consumption and investment. Medium-term growth prospects of some 3.5 percent per year, while reasonable, are not strong enough to steadily lift incomes towards regional standards, or to create enough jobs in a country with very high unemployment. Kosovo’s banks remain liquid, well capitalized, and profitable. Nonperforming loans ratios are slightly elevated at 8.4 percent, but are stable and fully provisioned.