International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines how surges in global financial market volatility spill over to emerging market economies (EMs) including India. The results suggest that a surge in global financial market volatility is transmitted very strongly to key macroeconomic and financial variables of EMs, and the extent of its pass-through increases with the depth of external balance-sheet linkages between advanced countries and EMs. The paper also looks at food inflation, which has often been singled out as a key driver of India’s high and persistent inflation.
Government’s Net Worth ,” Finance and Development , Vol. 44 ( June ), pp- 46 – 49 .
Von Hagen , Jurgen , and Ian J. Harden , 1995 , “ Budget Processes and Commitment to Fiscal Discipline ,” European Economic Review , Vol. 39 , No. 3–4 , pp. 771 – 79 . 10.1016/0014-2921(94)00084-D
Webb , Steven , 2004 , “ Fiscal Responsibility Laws for Subnational Discipline: The Latin American Experience ,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3309 ( Washington ).
World Bank , 2004 , India: State Fiscal Reforms in India, Progress and Prospects
Patrick Blagrave, Mr. Fabien Gonguet, Mr. Ranil M Salgado, and Ms. Manal Fouad
this requirement. Useful lessons can be drawn from Brazil, a large federal emerging market country which has managed to produce consolidated general government data within a few years by setting up a dedicated IT system and smart incentives for states to share their fiscal data on a timely basis (see Box).
India: Progress in Meeting GFS Recommendation as Part of Phase II of the G20 Data Gaps Initiative
Recommendation II.15. Government Finance Statistics – Disseminate quarterly General Government Data in line with GFSM 2014 by 2021
building and anchoring the allocation of resources for technical assistance in surveillance and Fund program priorities. Expanding regional coverage through new AFRITAC in Gabon and a regional training center in India. Progress toward reforms and improvements in costing, monitoring/evaluation, dissemination, and financing of technical assistance and training.
Managing an Effective Institution
New income model
Approval of a medium-term budget FY2009-11 that will deliver US
Current fiscal transparency and reporting practices in India place it behind most peer G20 economies, implying that policy makers are lacking critical data to ground their fiscal and other economic planning decisions. The increasing use of off-budget financing at the central government level in recent years represents one key example of reduced transparency—we provide estimates of the public sector borrowing requirement and an extended notion of the fiscal deficit, each of which shows a more expansionary stance in recent years than ‘headline’ deficit figures presented in budget documents. We then investigate the current state of fiscal reporting practices in India and suggest areas for reforms—these include enhanced IT systems, stronger central-local coordination, and a gradual transition to accrual accounting.
India’s progress in reducing poverty at the national level masks substantial disparity in the incidence of poverty at the state level. This paper provides a description of the trends in interstate differences in rural poverty for the period 1978–97. Key findings are that poverty generally declined in most states over the last twenty years. However, poverty increased during the early years of the 1990s reform period before decline again in the later years. Relative differences in poverty narrowed during the 1980s but widened somewhat during the next decade. The better success rate of some states in reducing poverty in the 1990s was, in part, due to higher growth and lower inflation.
This paper describes the policy changes that the Fund has made since the October 2007 IMFC meeting and the ways in which we plan to refocus the Fund’s work to support our members more strongly. It also describes the steps that management, staff, and the Executive Board have agreed to put our own house in order—to reform our governance, contain our spending, and solve our income problem.
The fiscal performance of the States in India has been an area of concern for quite some time. The Twelfth Finance Commission (TFC) recommended a three-pronged strategy to alleviate States' fiscal distress, built around greater orientation toward market discipline, incentives for fiscal consolidation targets, and commitment to fiscal correction. We find that States have created fiscal space through raising revenues and reducing and reprioritizing expenditures. Looking ahead, expansion of fiscal space is essential to meet the States' large infrastructure and social needs in order to alleviate bottlenecks to growth. This needs to be accomplished without undermining fiscal sustainability.
Rahul Anand, Mr. Volodymyr Tulin, Naresh Kumar, and Mr. Paul Cashin
-rural disparity is also reflected in the deterioration of the inclusiveness component for all India inclusive growth measures (top row of column 13) which appears disproportionately larger than the decline in overall urban inclusiveness would explain, given an urbanization rate of about 30 percent.
India: Progress on Growth, Poverty Reduction and Inequality. Summary Table for 16 Major States
Inclusive Growth and Components
Poverty Reduction and Growth-Inequality Decomposition
This paper uses the 1991 Indian trade liberalization to measure the impact of trade liberalization on poverty, and to examine the mechanisms underpinning this impact. Variation in sectoral composition across districts and liberalization intensity across production sectors allows a difference-in-difference approach. Rural districts, in which production sectors more exposed to liberalization were concentrated, experienced slower decline in poverty and lower consumption growth. The impact of liberalization was most pronounced among the least geographically mobile, at the bottom of the income distribution, and in Indian states where inflexible labor laws impeded factor reallocation across sectors.