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Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Aditya Pande, Mr. Ray Brooks, and Mr. Ralph Chami

) We estimate equation (1) to obtain coefficients p and q using the OLS regression on annual data from the U.S. EV market. The estimate of intercept p is close to zero (about 0.000017), and the estimate of slope q is equal to 0.44. Our 95 percent confidence interval is 0.34-0.53. The sample is very limited (10 years), but the estimates are in fact in line with the recent studies estimating the Bass model to project the adoption of EVs. 17 Becker et. al. (2009) and Davidson et. al. (2013) use a coefficient p between 0.01 and 0.02 and q of 0.4. 18 They

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Aditya Pande
Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.
Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Aditya Pande
Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Aditya Pande