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Mr. Albert Jaeger
This paper discusses the case for a money pillar in the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy strategy. Time-series evidence for industrial countries based on frequency-domain and unobserved-components analysis suggests that money can play a useful role in gauging and constraining long-run risks to price stability. Moreover, the specter of asset price bubbles and some of the area's institutional features, which may impart considerable persistence to area-wide inflation, caution against shifting to conventional inflation targeting. But the time series evidence also seems to point to a relatively loose connection between variations in nominal money growth and inflation in the short to medium run. As a consequence, effective communication of the ECB's monetary policy decisions from the point of view of the present money pillar is likely to remain a challenging task.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
El Boletín del FMI aborda de manera específica el trabajo del FMI y los grandes temas macroeconómicos y financieros internacionales y ofrece análisis sobre la evolución en los distintos países y regiones y en el mundo; información sobre las operaciones, políticas, reformas y asistencia técnica del FMI; síntesis de las principales investigaciones económicas mundiales; datos fundamentales que no suelen estar disponibles en otras fuentes, e informes sobre debates económicos y financieros que tienen lugar dentro y fuera del FMI. Este boletín de 16 páginas, publicado 12 veces al año, está orientado a una vasta audiencia, que incluye autoridades de política económica, analistas, profesionales del mundo académico y de los medios de difusión y estudiantes. Disponible en inglés, español y francés.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

across forecasters of monetary policy decisions? Systematic geographical differences, for instance, could arise in larger currency areas such as the United States or European Economic and Monetary Union, which encompass large and possibly quite diverse geographical regions. A new IMF Working Paper addresses this question for the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) and finds that the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts of ECB monetary policy decisions varies considerably. In particular, there is evidence of agglomeration effects in euro area financial markets, as

Mr. Helge Berger, Michael Ehrmann, and Marcel Fratzscher

significant in economic terms, both from a financial market perspective and from a policy point of view, reaching a level of about one-third of the typical ECB policy rate change of 25 basis points during the sample period. What explains this large heterogeneity in anticipating ECB monetary policy decisions? A first result of our empirical analysis is that geography matters for forecast accuracy. There is a surprising amount of cross-country variance in expectations about ECB policy rates— especially in the first years of the sample period. But the pattern of forecast

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Working Paper No. 02/231 Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey Leigh, Daniel; Rossi, Marco Working Paper No. 02/232 Measuring Liquidity in Financial Markets Sarr, Abdourahmane; Lybek, Tony Working Paper No. 02/233 Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions: A Comparative Examination Ross, Kevin Working Paper No. 02/234 “Original Sin,” Balance Sheet Crises and the Roles of International Lending Zettelmeyer, Jeromin; Jeanne, Olivier D. Working Paper No. 02/235 Imperfect

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Output: Further International Evidence , Francisco D. Nadal De Simone 02/230: Compiling and Using Export and Import Price Indices , Kimberly D. Zieschang and Jemma Dridi 02/231: Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey , Daniel Leigh and Marco Rossi 02/232: Measuring Liquidity in Financial Markets , Abdourahmane Sarr and Tony Lybek 02/233: Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions: A Comparative Examination , Kevin Ross 02/234: “Original Sin” Balance Sheet Crises and the Roles of International Lending , Jeromin Zettelmeyer and

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Afghanistan: IMF loan; de Rato, African Governors meet; Bank-Fund collaboration; New Zealand, Libya; Chinese monetary policy; Lebanon: reconstruction; Canada: commodity boom; Persian Gulf: statistical agency; ECB monetary policy; WAEMU; Mineral resources.