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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

COVID-19 mitigation measures) more than offsetting lower exports (reflecting COVID-related weakness in external demand and commodity prices). Assessment . The EBA CA model estimates a CA norm of about –1.2 percent of GDP, although an upward adjustment of 1.5 percent is necessary to ensure external debt can be brought down to sustainable levels over the medium term. Moreover, with limited access to international capital markets, Argentina cannot sustain CA deficits in the near to medium term. As such, the 2019 cyclically adjusted CA balance of –1.7 percent of GDP is at

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

(In percent of GDP) Sources: WEO database; and IMF staff calculations. 1 Includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam. 2. This paper provides an overview of Thailand-specific factors that help inform staff’s assessment of the external position. The Fund’s External Balance Assessment current account (EBA CA) model estimated the cyclically adjusted current account for Thailand at 11.1 percent of GDP and the current account norm at 1.1 percent of GDP in 2016. After accounting for a policy gap of 2.3 percent of GDP, the unexplained

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes factors that could bring inflation back to target in Thailand. The paper estimates a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve with time varying parameters to gauge the quantitative role of (long-term) inflation trends, economic slack, and import price inflation in shaping inflation dynamics. The analysis reveals some important changes in Thailand’s inflation dynamics. It suggests that the impact of lower import prices was a major factor behind the decline in headline inflation in 2015, with low oil prices the largest contributor to inflation dynamics. Monetary policy easing, within a broader expansionary policy mix, should help bring inflation back to target.
International Monetary Fund

when assessing the CA gap. The next section will discuss how to address uncertainties when evaluating model results. Table 2. Summary Statistics of CA Models CGER-based EBA-lite EBA Country 147 150 49 Sample SE 0.10 0.09 0.05 R-squared 0.36 0.45 0.53 RMSE 0.08 0.07 0.03 Differences from EBA model 14. Explanatory variables in the EBA-lite CA model are similar but not identical to those in the EBA CA model . Excluded variables Reserve

International Monetary Fund

-lite United Arab Emirates EBA-lite United Kingdom ESR EBA EBA-lite United States ESR EBA EBA-lite Uruguay EBA 1/ EBA-lite Uzbekistan Vanuatu EBA-lite 3/ Venezuela EBA-lite Vietnam Yemen EBA-lite Zambia EBA-lite Zimbabwe 1/ Countries are included in the EBA CA model but not in the REER index model. 2/ Countries are included in the EBA-lite CA model but not in the REER index model. 3/ Countries are included in the EBA

International Monetary Fund
The Fund has taken important steps to enhance its external sector assessments since the launch of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and the External Sector Report (ESR) in 2012, which provides a multilaterally consistent assessment of the largest economies’ external sector positions and policies. With scope for strengthening external sector assessments of non-EBA countries, the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) called for the application of EBA’s conceptual innovations to a broader set of countries. Following the 2014 TSR, the Managing Director’s Action Plan proposed developing EBA-lite to extend the EBA methodology to a broader group of countries where adequate data is available. In the fall of 2014, the launch of the EBA-lite methodology for current account assessments provided the first extension of EBA approach for non-EBA countries. In summer 2015, the real exchange rate index model and the external sustainability approach were added to the EBA-lite framework. This note serves as a reference for the EBA-lite methodology. It provides: (i) motivations for developing EBA-lite and guidance for its use; (ii) technical explanations of all three EBA-lite approaches; and (iii) suggestions on how to articulate staff assessments of the external sector informed by model results.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

covering the current account deficit. International reserves stood at US$7.5 billion at end-2018, equivalent to 4.7 months of imports and comfortably exceeding the Fund’s reserve adequacy benchmark. The external balance assessment (EBA) CA model 3 suggests a modest CA gap of 0.8 percent of GDP for 2018, implying that the REER is broadly consistent with fundamentals (Table). In line with staff’s advice and the IMF’s institutional view on capital flows , in December 2018, the two capital flow management measures (CFMs) on inflows were removed. 4 Costa Rica: Results

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

COVID-19 mitigation measures) more than offsetting lower exports (reflecting COVID-related weakness in external demand and commodity prices). Assessment . The EBA CA model estimates a CA norm of about –1.2 percent of GDP, although an upward adjustment of 1.5 percent is necessary to ensure external debt can be brought down to sustainable levels over the medium term. Moreover, with limited access to international capital markets, Argentina cannot sustain CA deficits in the near to medium term. As such, the 2019 cyclically adjusted CA balance of –1.7 percent of GDP is at

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

from the EBA CA model. The standard error of the CA norm is 1.3 percent of GDP for Guatemala. 3/ CA norm adjusted up to reflect the negative impact of Guatemala’s security conditions on investment which is not captured by the EBA CA model. 4/ Implied by the elasticity of CA balance to REER estimated for Guatemala (-0.16) using 5/ Of which, 0.7 percent owes to lower fiscal deficit and 0.3 percent owes to lower health spending than desirable policies. Regression model Pooled OLS Fixed effects Estimated impact of