Following a benchmarking exercise, we estimate the spending required to reach satisfactory progress in the Sustainable Development Goals in the health, education, and infrastructure sectors in Brazil. We find that there is room for savings in education (up to 1.5 percentage point of GDP) and health (up to 2.5 percentage points of GDP) without compromising the quality of services but additional investments for over 3 percent of GDP per year are needed to close large infrastructure gaps in roads, water, and electricity by 2030. Brazil can do more with less, but increasing efficiency of public spending will require substantial reforms.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Brazil is building on 10 years of robust economic fundamentals. Economic growth, which has long been anemic, is beginning to pick up. Inflation continues to be low. Consumer prices rose only 3 percent between January 2006 and January 2007 and inflation expectations remain low. Brazil’s external position is solid, with a strong current account surplus—1½ percent of GDP last year—and international reserves around $97 billion, equivalent to about 175 percent of its short-term debt.
Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho and Mr. Marcos d Chamon
11. Mexico: Ownership for Durable Goods, and Sensitivity to Income
1. Brazil: GDP Per Capita and Average Growth in Decade
2. Mexico: GDP Per Capita and Average Growth in Decade
3. Changes in Relative Prices in Brazil
4. Non-Parametric Estimates of Relationship between Food Shares and Household Expenditure in Brazil
5A. Estimated Bias in Brazil in 1987/88-1995/96 as a Function of CPI-Measured Real Expenditure in 1995/96
5B. Estimated Bias in Brazil 1995/96-2002/03 as a Function of CPI-Measured Real Expenditure in 2002/03
Swiston , A. and T. Bayoumi , 2008 , “ Spillovers Across NAFTA ,” IMF Working Paper WP/08/3 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ).
World Bank , 2007 , “ Migration and Remittances Factbook ”, ( Washington, DC ).
VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
Sample: 1996Q1 2008Q4
Included observations: 50
Dependent variable: BRAZILGDP Growth
adjusted harmonized ESA95 quarterly GDP in millions of chained 2000 euros. US GDP: Obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonally adjusted in billions of chained US 2000 dollars. BrazilGDP: Annual GDP in billions of Reais (Brazil’s national currency) at 1995 prices was obtained from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) database and converted into quarterly frequencies using Eviews (I selected option “Quadratic Match Sum”). All Nigerian Data: Annual data was obtained from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) database and converted into quarterly
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
). This potential improvement would be four times larger than the potential gain for emerging economies and three times the gains for the group of Latin American economies. 9
Figure 5. Brazil: GDP Growth Effects from Reducing Tax Disparity 1/
Source: Fund staff estimates.
1/ The figure includes medians across groups of Latin American and Emerging countries.
The group of Latin American countries includes Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Falkland Islands, French Guiana, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico
Should policymakers still be concerned about economic growth in trading partners? Have developing and emerging market countries decoupled from the US enough to grow despite significant recession in the US? Using VAR models, this paper addresses these questions for Nigeria in the context of the global crisis. The results seem to debunk the "decoupling theory" and suggest there are still significant spillovers from Nigeria's main trading partners, including the US, with trade and commodity price linkages being the dominant transmission channels. Given the sharp fall in both trade financing and commodity prices in aftermath of the crisis, these results provide some explanation to the realization of adverse second-round effects in Nigeria.
Mr. Sebastian Sosa, Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, and Miss Marie S Kim
Figure A.1. Latin America and the Caribbean: Contribution to Real GDP Growth
(Annual average; percent)
Sources: Penn World Table 7.1; IMF, World Economic Outlook ; and authors’ calculations.
1 For Central America:1992–2002.
Figure A.2. Robustness Checks
Sources: Penn World Table 7.1; IMF, World Economic Outlook ; national authorities’ and authors’ calculations.
1 For country names, see figure 6 .
2 Using capital stock series provided by the authorities; Central Bank for Chile and IPEA for Brazil. GDP from