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Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance

Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance »

Source: Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance : What Lies Ahead in Eastern Europe?

Volume/Issue: 2010/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jesmin Rahman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

ISBN: 9781451982749

Keywords: Pro-cyclicality, cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance, expenditure, capital expenditure, social expenditure, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General,

This paper estimates revenue and expenditure pro-cyclicality with respect to output and domestic absorption in new member states of the European Union and Croatia to assess whether these countries used the boom yea...

Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems »

Source: Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems

Volume/Issue: 2003/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chikako Oka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2003

ISBN: 9781451843668

Keywords: early warning, probability, currency crises, debt service, external debt, debt outstanding, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed...

An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries

An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries »

Source: An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2014/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maximilien Kaffo Melou , Mariusz Sumlinski , and Chris Geiregat

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 June 2014

ISBN: 9781498345033

Keywords: HIPC, MDRI, fan chart, debt sustainablity, debt relief, debt sustainability, debt accumulation, debt dynamics, Deficit, International Lending and Debt Problems

We analyse the debt dynamics in countries that benefited from the HIPC/MDRI debt relief initiatives with a view to applying a probabilistic approach to estimating future debt paths for those countries. We extend t...

Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?

Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive? »

Source: Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?

Volume/Issue: 2011/195

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , and Samya Beidas-Strom

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781462305247

Keywords: Current account determination, macroeconomic balance approach, oil exporters, exporters, reer, exporting countries, terms of trade, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

Employing a dynamic panel regression, this study estimates the medium-term current account position for three subgroups of emerging market and developing countries with shared economic characteristics. The fundamen...

Arrears to the IMF - A Ghost of the Past?

Arrears to the IMF - A Ghost of the Past? »

Source: Arrears to the IMF - A Ghost of the Past?

Volume/Issue: 2016/225

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anne Oeking , and Mariusz Sumlinski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475554823

Keywords: International Monetary Fund, External debt, Arrears, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems

In this paper, we consider incidences of arrears to the IMF, focusing on protracted arrears cases and attempt to identify determinants of their occurrence. We use narrative and formal methods. In addition, we analy...

As You sow so Shall You Reap

As You sow so Shall You Reap »

Source: As You sow so Shall You Reap : Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo

Volume/Issue: 2012/127

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio David , Luis-Felipe Zanna , Raphael Espinoza , Michal Andrle , and Marshall Mills

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503647

Keywords: external debt, external borrowing, public debt, International Lending and Debt Problems, Monetary Growth Models,

This paper presents an analysis of the public investment scaling-up strategy for Togo using a dynamic macroeconomic model that explicitly analyzes the links between public investment, economic growth, and debt sust...

Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries*

Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries* »

Source: Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2014/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Enrico Berkes , Catherine Pattillo , Andrea Presbitero , and Yorbol Yakhshilikov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 March 2014

ISBN: 9781475579772

Keywords: DSF, Sovereign debt crises, debt thresholds, external debt, debt crises, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each o...

Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

Volume/Issue: 2015/110

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Leandro Medina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 May 2015

ISBN: 9781513551081

Keywords: exchange rate, fiscal risks, guarantees, debt, exchange, liabilities, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt, guarantees.,

This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rat...

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability : A Cross-Country Comparison

Volume/Issue: 2003/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enzo Croce , and V. Juan-Ramon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

ISBN: 9781451856569

Keywords: convergence, fiscal rule, public debt, debt ratio, fiscal stance, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt,

To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted...

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice1

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice1 »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice

Volume/Issue: 2000/81

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nigel Chalk , and Richard Hemming

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2000

ISBN: 9781451850352

Keywords: Government deficits and debt, present value budget constraint, sustainability indicators, fiscal sustainability, debt ratio, budget constraint, primary deficit

The main purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of approaches to assessing fiscal sustainability. It summarizes the general analytical background, focusing on the present value budget constraint, which is...