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Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina »

Source: Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Volume/Issue: 2006/276

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Kanda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

ISBN: 9781451865363

Keywords: Fiscal, monetary, trade balance, fiscal expenditure, fiscal tightening, disposable income, fiscal consolidation, Estimation, Model Construction and Estimation, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation

This paper develops and estimates a model of the trade balance of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Credit flows and the fiscal stance are found to play a significant role in determining the trade balance. On this basis the...

Do Fiscal Spillovers Matter?

Do Fiscal Spillovers Matter? »

Source: Do Fiscal Spillovers Matter?

Volume/Issue: 2011/211

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Weber , and Anna Ivanova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463902315

Keywords: coordinated fiscal exit, fiscal changes, fiscal consolidation, fiscal measure, Macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance, Macroeconomic - Aspects Of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, And General Outlook, general Aggregative Models,

The paper assesses the impact of fiscal spillovers on growth in the context of a coordinated exit from crisis management policies. We find that despite potentially sizeable domestic effects from consolidation, aggr...

Econometric Analysis of Discrete Reforms

Econometric Analysis of Discrete Reforms »

Source: Econometric Analysis of Discrete Reforms

Volume/Issue: 2001/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

ISBN: 9781451857405

Keywords: exogeneity, testing reforms, econometric policy analysis, exchange rate, cointegration, equation, granger causality, exchange rate unification, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data

The paper suggests an econometric methodology for testing the effectiveness of reforms implemented in one major step, i.e., discrete reforms. The methodology is based on the exogeneity properties of variables in an...

Effects of Globalization on Labor's Share in National Income

Effects of Globalization on Labor's Share in National Income »

Source: Effects of Globalization on Labor's Share in National Income

Volume/Issue: 2006/294

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anastasia Guscina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

ISBN: 9781451865547

Keywords: Labor&;amp;#x2019;s share, capital&;amp;#x2019;s share, labor protection, bargaining power, compensation share, employment share, Heckscher-Ohlin theorem, employment, employment protection, labor share

The past two decades have seen a decline in labor's share of national income in several industrial countries. This paper analyzes the role of three factors in explaining movements in labor's share--factor-biased te...

Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt

Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt »

Source: Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt : Spillovers, Inflation Dynamics, and Implications for Monetary Policy

Volume/Issue: 2011/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Elif Arbatli , and Kenji Moriyama

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

ISBN: 9781455261376

Keywords: Small open economy model, transmission mechanism, exchange rate, interest rate, real interest, real interest rate, output gap, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

This paper estimates a small open economy model for Egypt to analyze inflation, output dynamics and monetary policy during 2005-2010. The interest rate channel is found to be relatively weak in Egypt, complicating...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Source: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

Evolution of the Relative Price of Goods and Services in a Neoclassical Model of Capital Accumulation

Evolution of the Relative Price of Goods and Services in a Neoclassical Model of Capital Accumulation »

Source: Evolution of the Relative Price of Goods and Services in a Neoclassical Model of Capital Accumulation

Volume/Issue: 2004/207

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vladimir Klyuev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2004

ISBN: 9781451874686

Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson effect, two-sector growth model, capital mobility, capital intensity, services sector, General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical, Economic Growth of Open Economies, One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models,

This paper provides an explanation for the secular increase in the price of services relative to that of manufactured goods that relies on capital accumulation rather than on an exogenous total factor productivity...

A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa

A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa »

Source: A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa

Volume/Issue: 2012/196

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nombulelo Gumata , Eliphas Ndou , and Nir Klein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

ISBN: 9781475505450

Keywords: Financial conditions index, factor analysis, gdp growth, explanatory power, granger causality, standard deviation, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman fi...

Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area

Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area »

Source: Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area

Volume/Issue: 2011/93

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2011

ISBN: 9781455253326

Keywords: Financial Conditions, Short-term Forecasting, Real-Time Data, forecasting, bond, bond spread, government bond, bond yield, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

Financial conditions indexes are developed for the United States and euro area using a wide range of financial indicators and a dynamic factor model. The financial conditions indexes are shown to be useful for fore...