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Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets

Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets »

Source: Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets : How Do Emerging and Mature Markets Differ?

Volume/Issue: 1996/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anthony Richards

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 1996

ISBN: 9781451844757

Keywords: emerging markets, predictability, autocorrelation, cointegration, standard deviation

This paper examines the evidence for the common assertion that the volatility of emerging stock markets has increased as a result of the liberalization of markets. A range of measures suggests that there has been n...

Mexico

Mexico »

Source: Mexico : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2007/378

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 December 2007

ISBN: 9781451956061

Keywords: real output, business cycle, standard deviation, real interest, capital inflows

This Selected Issues paper analyzes external shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S. demand shocks-and other foreign disturbances-in explaining Mexican o...

Mexico: Selected Issues

Mexico: Selected Issues »

Source: Mexico : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2007/378

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 December 2007

ISBN: 9781451956061

Keywords: real output, business cycle, standard deviation, real interest, capital inflows

This Selected Issues paper analyzes external shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S. demand shocks-and other foreign disturbances-in explaining Mexican o...

Mexico: Selected Issues

Mexico: Selected Issues »

Source: Mexico : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2007/378

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 December 2007

ISBN: 9781451956061

Keywords: real output, business cycle, standard deviation, real interest, capital inflows

This Selected Issues paper analyzes external shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S. demand shocks-and other foreign disturbances-in explaining Mexican o...

The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations

The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations »

Source: The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations

Volume/Issue: 1992/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrique Mendoza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1992

ISBN: 9781451852066

Keywords: terms of trade, correlation, standard deviation, import prices, statistics

A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing indu...

A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises

A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises »

Source: A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises

Volume/Issue: 2010/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Robert Flood , Juan Yepez , and Nancy Marion

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

ISBN: 9781455208920

Keywords: Speculative attacks, fixed exchange rate, Monte Carlo, probabilities, standard deviation, probability, correlation,

Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment des...

The Perils of Tax Smoothing

The Perils of Tax Smoothing »

Source: The Perils of Tax Smoothing : Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output

Volume/Issue: 2005/207

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evan Tanner , and Kevin Carey

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2005

ISBN: 9781451862263

Keywords: Tax smoothing, sustainability, and forecast error, tax rates, statistics, standard deviation, statistic, forecast error,

If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simul...

How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets

How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets »

Source: How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 1999/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ajit Singh , Rudolph Matthias , and Jack Glen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1999

ISBN: 9781451845099

Keywords: Corporate Rates of Return, Intensity of Competition, Emerging Markets, standard deviation, equation, statistic

This large empirical study of corporate profitability in emerging markets during the 1980s and 1990s measures the intensity of competition. Data on corporate rates of return, profit margins, and output-capital rati...

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets »

Source: Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets : Does Investment Grade Matter?

Volume/Issue: 2011/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Jaramillo , and Michelle Tejada

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

ISBN: 9781455218981

Keywords: Rating Agencies, public debt, external public debt, standard deviation, external debt, standard errors, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Finance: General, International Lending and Debt Problems,

Sovereign investment grade status is often associated with lower spreads in international markets. Using a panel framework for 35 emerging markets between 1997 and 2010, thispaper finds that investment grade status...

Regional Convergence in Latin America

Regional Convergence in Latin America »

Source: Regional Convergence in Latin America

Volume/Issue: 2006/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bennett Sutton , Genevieve Lindow , Maria Isabel Serra , Gustavo Ramirez , and Maria Fernanda Pazmino

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2006

ISBN: 9781451863857

Keywords: growth, convergence, regional disparities, standard deviation, trade liberalization, conditional convergence, equation, correlation, Economywide Country Studies: Oceania, Regional Economic Activity: Growth

This paper presents empirical evidence on convergence of per capita output for regions within six large middle-income Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. It explores the...