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How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts

How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts »

Source: How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts : Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth

Volume/Issue: 2000/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2000

ISBN: 9781451849981

Keywords: Forecasting, Recessions, GDP, Consensus, IMF, recession, standard deviation, correlation

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industri...

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets »

Source: Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets : Does Investment Grade Matter?

Volume/Issue: 2011/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Jaramillo , and Michelle Tejada

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

ISBN: 9781455218981

Keywords: Rating Agencies, public debt, external public debt, standard deviation, external debt, standard errors, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Finance: General, International Lending and Debt Problems,

Sovereign investment grade status is often associated with lower spreads in international markets. Using a panel framework for 35 emerging markets between 1997 and 2010, thispaper finds that investment grade status...

The Volatility Trap

The Volatility Trap »

Source: The Volatility Trap : Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk

Volume/Issue: 2012/134

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reda Cherif , and Fuad Hasanov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503869

Keywords: Volatility, risk, precautionary saving, buffer-stock, growth, investment rate, standard deviation, nonlinear relationship, correlation, statistics

We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store-or-sow" model of growth. High volatility of permanent shocks results in high precautionary saving in...

How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts
			: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth

How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts : Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2000/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451849981.001

ISBN: 9781451849981

Keywords: Forecasting, Recessions, GDP, Consensus, IMF, recession, standard deviation, correlation

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industri...

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets
			: Does Investment Grade Matter?

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets : Does Investment Grade Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2011/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Jaramillo , and Michelle Tejada

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455218981.001

ISBN: 9781455218981

Keywords: Rating Agencies, public debt, external public debt, standard deviation, external debt, standard errors, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Finance: General, International Lending and Debt Problems,

Sovereign investment grade status is often associated with lower spreads in international markets. Using a panel framework for 35 emerging markets between 1997 and 2010, thispaper finds that investment grade status...

The Volatility Trap
			: Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk

The Volatility Trap : Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk »

Volume/Issue: 2012/134

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reda Cherif , and Fuad Hasanov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503869.001

ISBN: 9781475503869

Keywords: Volatility, risk, precautionary saving, buffer-stock, growth, investment rate, standard deviation, nonlinear relationship, correlation, statistics

We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store-or-sow" model of growth. High volatility of permanent shocks results in high precautionary saving in...