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Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616354121.084

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility...

Appendix 1: Data Sources and Definitions: Event Study Analysis

Appendix 1: Data Sources and Definitions: Event Study Analysis »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

The event study analysis is based on a panel of 71 LICs (Table A1.1). The sample period spans from 1980 to 2007 for the analysis of past shock episodes and from 2007 to 2010 for the...

Appendix 2: Robustness Analysis

Appendix 2: Robustness Analysis »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

This appendix provides a robustness check for the event study analysis using alternative definitions of shocks and related losses. In particular, shocks were redefined in terms of a...

Appendix 3: Data and Robustness Analysis of Optimal Reserves

Appendix 3: Data and Robustness Analysis of Optimal Reserves »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

This appendix discusses data sources for the regressions reported in Chapter 5, as well as the calibration exercise in Chapter 6, and reports robustness checks for the regression re...

1. Introduction

1. Introduction »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

Low-income countries (LICs) are routinely faced with a wide range of exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade and export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—and the resul...

2. External Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance

2. External Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

Macroeconomic volatility in LICs reflects a high frequency of exogenous shocks. Real external shocks and natural disasters are more frequent in LICs compared with advanced and emerging market countries. An a...

3. Anatomy of External Shocks in Low-Income Countries

3. Anatomy of External Shocks in Low-Income Countries »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

Although the potential growth and welfare costs of external shocks in LICs are well documented, the role of reserves in mitigating the impact of such shocks warrants further attention. An event study approac...

4. Stylized Facts

4. Stylized Facts »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

This chapter provides an overview of recent developments in reserve accumulation in LICs. It also presents results of a reserve demand regression, which allows for a more systematic assessment of reserve hol...

5. Optimal Precautionary Reserves

5. Optimal Precautionary Reserves »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

Assessing reserve adequacy requires an understanding of the benefits of reserves in smoothing domestic consumption and absorption in response to external shocks, as well as the costs of holding reserves. In...

6. Calibrating Reserves for Country Groups

6. Calibrating Reserves for Country Groups »

Source: Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Valerio Crispolti , Era Dabla-Norris , Jun Kim , Kazuko Shirono , and George Tsibouris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781616354121

Keywords: External shocks, reserve holdings, consumption growth, terms of trade, current account

Having estimated conditional probability of a crisis (P) and the cost of a crisis (C), this chapter elaborates on the calibration results. We first construct a benchmark calibration for various country group...