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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Volume/Issue: 2014/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 April 2014

ISBN: 9781484355282

Keywords: out-of-sample performance, currency crisis, crisis episodes, global financial crisis, General, out-of-sample performance.,

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29...

Bulgaria

Bulgaria »

Source: Bulgaria : Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Volume/Issue: 2000/149

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2000

ISBN: 9781451804447

Keywords: export performance, transition economies, export growth, reer, trade liberalization

The paper assesses key aspects of Bulgaria's competitiveness. The challenge is to stay on course and persist with policies that will maintain and strengthen competitiveness. Implementation of the ambitious reform p...

Bulgaria: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Bulgaria: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix »

Source: Bulgaria : Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Volume/Issue: 2000/149

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2000

ISBN: 9781451804447

Keywords: export performance, transition economies, export growth, reer, trade liberalization

The paper assesses key aspects of Bulgaria's competitiveness. The challenge is to stay on course and persist with policies that will maintain and strengthen competitiveness. Implementation of the ambitious reform p...

Bulgaria: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Bulgaria: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix »

Source: Bulgaria : Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix

Volume/Issue: 2000/149

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2000

ISBN: 9781451804447

Keywords: export performance, transition economies, export growth, reer, trade liberalization

The paper assesses key aspects of Bulgaria's competitiveness. The challenge is to stay on course and persist with policies that will maintain and strengthen competitiveness. Implementation of the ambitious reform p...

Corruption, Structural Reforms, and Economic Performance in the Transition Economies

Corruption, Structural Reforms, and Economic Performance in the Transition Economies »

Source: Corruption, Structural Reforms, and Economic Performance in the Transition Economies

Volume/Issue: 2000/132

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): George Abed , and Hamid Davoodi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2000

ISBN: 9781451855371

Keywords: structural reforms, inflation, exchange rate regime, macroeconomic performance, wage inflation

Recent studies have highlighted the adverse impact of corruption on economic performance. This paper advances the hypothesis that corruption is largely a symptom of underlying weaknesses in public policies and inst...

Advanced Public Financial Management Reforms in South East Europe

Advanced Public Financial Management Reforms in South East Europe »

Source: Advanced Public Financial Management Reforms in South East Europe

Volume/Issue: 2009/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mia Pavesic-Skerlep , and Eivind Tandberg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2009

ISBN: 9781451872491

Keywords: budget process, budget systems, annual budget, medium-term budget, performance budgeting

This paper aims to clarify possible systemic bottlenecks to the introduction of advanced PFM reforms in the SEE countries. It relates key fiscal developments to PFM reform processes over the last 15 years. PFM refo...

Breaking the Impediments to Budgetary Reforms

Breaking the Impediments to Budgetary Reforms »

Source: Breaking the Impediments to Budgetary Reforms : Evidence from Europe

Volume/Issue: 2008/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ashoka Mody , and Stefania Fabrizio

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

ISBN: 9781451869439

Keywords: Budget institutions, government fragmentation, government ideology, economic shocks, fiscal institutions, budget process, fiscal performance,

Under what conditions are budget institutions likely to be strengthened? We find that fiscal deficits do not help in focusing policymakers on undertaking reforms. To the contrary, the larger the deficit, the lower...

Words vs. Deeds

Words vs. Deeds »

Source: Words vs. Deeds : What Really Matters?

Volume/Issue: 2011/112

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mahvash Qureshi , Atish Ghosh , and Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

ISBN: 9781455261413

Keywords: policy credibility, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, central bank, inflation performance, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

This paper revisits the link between the nominal exchange rate regime and inflation, based on a sample of 145 emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) over the period 1980-2010. We contend that, just as a d...

Finance in Lower Income Countries

Finance in Lower Income Countries »

Source: Finance in Lower Income Countries : An Empirical Exploration

Volume/Issue: 2005/167

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Poonam Gupta , Thierry Tressel , and Enrica Detragiache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2005

ISBN: 9781451861860

Keywords: Financial development, financial sector, banking, deposit insurance, financial sector performance, banking system,

This paper considers how a comprehensive set of factors relates to financial sector performance in low-income countries (LICs). It finds that corruption and inflation are associated with a shallower and less effici...

Being a Foreigner Among Domestic Banks

Being a Foreigner Among Domestic Banks »

Source: Being a Foreigner Among Domestic Banks : Asset or Liability?

Volume/Issue: 2009/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Neeltje Horen , and Stijn Claessens

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2009

ISBN: 9781451874181

Keywords: performance, distance, foreign banks, foreign bank, domestic banks, host country, foreign ownership,

Studying a large number of banks in various countries between 1999 and 2006, we document that foreign banks perform better when from a high income country, when host country competition is limited, and when they ar...