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Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters

Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters »

Source: Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters

Volume/Issue: 2018/163

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Bluedorn , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484363980

Keywords: Business cycles, output fluctuations, output persistence, ouput forecast, advanced and emerging markets, jbluedorn@imforg, dleigh@imforg, Forecasting and Simulation

We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dom...

Modeling with Limited Data

Modeling with Limited Data »

Source: Modeling with Limited Data : Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia

Volume/Issue: 2012/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

ISBN: 9781475502862

Keywords: growth diagnostics, export diversification, fixed capital formation, factor accumulation, output growth, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, One

This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics'. The framework is used to forecast potential gr...

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility »

Source: Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

Volume/Issue: 2003/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marco Terrones , Eswar Prasad , and Ayhan Kose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

ISBN: 9781451846997

Keywords: Financial Globalization, Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Income and Consumption Volatility, International Risk Sharing, financial integration, output volatility, capital flows, trade openness, trade integration, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First,...

Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters

Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters »

Volume/Issue: 2018/163

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Bluedorn , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484363980.001

ISBN: 9781484363980

Keywords: Business cycles, output fluctuations, output persistence, ouput forecast, advanced and emerging markets, jbluedorn@imforg, dleigh@imforg, Forecasting and Simulation

We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dom...

Modeling with Limited Data
			: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia

Modeling with Limited Data : Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia »

Volume/Issue: 2012/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502862.001

ISBN: 9781475502862

Keywords: growth diagnostics, export diversification, fixed capital formation, factor accumulation, output growth, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, One

This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics'. The framework is used to forecast potential gr...

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility »

Volume/Issue: 2003/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marco Terrones , Eswar Prasad , and Ayhan Kose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846997.001

ISBN: 9781451846997

Keywords: Financial Globalization, Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Income and Consumption Volatility, International Risk Sharing, financial integration, output volatility, capital flows, trade openness, trade integration, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First,...