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The Wage-Price Spiral

The Wage-Price Spiral »

Source: The Wage-Price Spiral : Industrial Country Evidence and Implications

Volume/Issue: 2003/164

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2003

ISBN: 9781451858013

Keywords: Wage-Price Spiral, Asymmetric Fluctuations, Output Effect, Standard of Living, wage, aggregate demand, inflation, wage-price, Output-Effect,

Using quarterly time-series data for a sample of twelve industrial countries, the paper investigates the dynamics of nominal wage and price adjustments in the face of aggregate demand shocks. The evidence illustrat...

When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances

When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances »

Source: When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances

Volume: 11

Series: Technical Notes and Manuals

Author(s): Fabian Bornhorst , Annalisa Fedelino , Jan Gottschalk , and Gabriela Dobrescu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 April 2011

ISBN: 9781475510201

Keywords: Commodity prices, fiscal policy, cyclical adjustment, structural fiscal balance, business cycle fluctuations, asset prices, output composition, output, tax, prices

Technical Notes and Manuals are produced by IMF departments to expand the dissemination of their technical assistance advice. These papers present general advice and guidance, drawn in part from unpublished techni...

Measuring a Roller Coaster

Measuring a Roller Coaster »

Source: Measuring a Roller Coaster : Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap

Volume/Issue: 2004/57

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2004

ISBN: 9781451847802

Keywords: output gap, inflation forecasting, unemployment, unemployment rate, forecasting, statistics, rate of unemployment, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods...

Ghostbusting

Ghostbusting »

Source: Ghostbusting : Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

Volume/Issue: 2004/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

ISBN: 9781451856675

Keywords: Output gap, inflation forecasting, forecasting, statistics, statistic, inflationary pressures, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic...

Growth Forecast Errors and  Fiscal Multipliers

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers »

Source: Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Volume/Issue: 2013/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475576443

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers, growth forecast, fiscal balance, General, General, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated...

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence »

Source: Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence

Volume/Issue: 2011/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Leigh , Andrea Pescatori , and Jaime Guajardo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2011

ISBN: 9781455294695

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal adjustments, fiscal consolidations, budget deficit, Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General, And Finance,

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fi...

Real Unit Labor Costs Differentials in EMU+L4700

Real Unit Labor Costs Differentials in EMU+L4700 »

Source: Real Unit Labor Costs Differentials in EMU+L4700 : How Big, How Benign and How Reversible?

Volume/Issue: 2011/109

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Igor Lebrun , and Esther Perez Ruiz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

ISBN: 9781455261383

Keywords: Relative real unit labor costs, capital-output ratio, labor and product market institutions, EMU, labor costs, labor market, intermediate inputs, product market, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, Prices

Real unit labor costs (RULC) growth differentials between euro area members have persisted since EMU began and even widened out in the run-up to the crisis. This paper focuses on the causes underlying such dispersi...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Source: Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model »

Source: Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Volume/Issue: 2011/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463904210

Keywords: Regular and data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, real output, money demand, money balances, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices

When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon...

The Wage-Price Spiral
			: Industrial Country Evidence and Implications

The Wage-Price Spiral : Industrial Country Evidence and Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2003/164

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451858013.001

ISBN: 9781451858013

Keywords: Wage-Price Spiral, Asymmetric Fluctuations, Output Effect, Standard of Living, wage, aggregate demand, inflation, wage-price, Output-Effect,

Using quarterly time-series data for a sample of twelve industrial countries, the paper investigates the dynamics of nominal wage and price adjustments in the face of aggregate demand shocks. The evidence illustrat...