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How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook »

Source: How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

Volume/Issue: 1996/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Artis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 1996

ISBN: 9781451851250

Keywords: statistic, significance level, forecasting, absolute error, output growth

This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial c...

The Wage-Price Spiral

The Wage-Price Spiral »

Source: The Wage-Price Spiral : Industrial Country Evidence and Implications

Volume/Issue: 2003/164

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2003

ISBN: 9781451858013

Keywords: Wage-Price Spiral, Asymmetric Fluctuations, Output Effect, Standard of Living, wage, aggregate demand, inflation, wage-price, Output-Effect,

Using quarterly time-series data for a sample of twelve industrial countries, the paper investigates the dynamics of nominal wage and price adjustments in the face of aggregate demand shocks. The evidence illustrat...

Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability

Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability »

Source: Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability : Automatic Stabilizers Work, Always and Everywhere

Volume/Issue: 2010/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Xavier Debrun , and Radhicka Kapoor

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

ISBN: 9781455200702

Keywords: Output stability, expenditure, discretionary fiscal policy, fiscal stabilization, cyclical fiscal policy,

The paper revisits the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability. Two salient features of our analysis are (1) a systematic test for the government's ambivalent role as a shock absorber and a shock ind...

After the Crisis

After the Crisis »

Source: After the Crisis : Assessing the Damage in Italy

Volume/Issue: 2010/244

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Silvia Sgherri , and Hanan Morsy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455209446

Keywords: productivity growth, output losses, unemployment, total factor productivity, tfp, employment, real gdp, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models,

Italy's deep-rooted structural problems resulted in an unsatisfactory productivity performance and a dismal growth over the last 15 years. The global financial crisis has exacerbated these long-standing weaknesses,...

Unlocking Female Employment Potential in Europe: Drivers and Benefits

Unlocking Female Employment Potential in Europe: Drivers and Benefits »

Source: Unlocking Female Employment Potential in Europe : Drivers and Benefits

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Lone Engbo Christiansen , Huidan Lin , Joana Pereira , Petia Topalova , and Rima Turk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513562513

Keywords: Corporate governance, Gender equality, Labor force participation, Labor force policy, Output growth, women, labor force, gender, participation, labor

With an aging population and declining productivity growth, Europe faces serious challenges to raising its output growth. Adding to these challenges are the various gender gaps in the labor market. Despite signific...

Steady as She Goes-Estimating Potential Output During Financial 'Booms and Busts'

Steady as She Goes-Estimating Potential Output During Financial 'Booms and Busts' »

Source: Steady as She Goes-Estimating Potential Output During Financial 'Booms and Busts'

Volume/Issue: 2015/233

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Helge Berger , Thomas Dowling , Sergi Lanau , Mico Mrkaic , Pau Rabanal , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 November 2015

ISBN: 9781513503271

Keywords: Output gap, variables, gdp, demand, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Model Construction and Estimation, Estimation, All Countries,

Potential output-in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term-is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial 'booms and busts' are...

Ghostbusting

Ghostbusting »

Source: Ghostbusting : Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

Volume/Issue: 2004/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

ISBN: 9781451856675

Keywords: Output gap, inflation forecasting, forecasting, statistics, statistic, inflationary pressures, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic...

2. How has Women’s Labor Supply Evolved?

2. How has Women’s Labor Supply Evolved? »

Source: Unlocking Female Employment Potential in Europe : Drivers and Benefits

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Lone Engbo Christiansen , Huidan Lin , Joana Pereira , Petia Topalova , and Rima Turk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513562513

Keywords: Corporate governance, Gender equality, Labor force participation, Labor force policy, Output growth, women, labor force, gender, participation, labor

More Women in the Labor Force...

1. Why is Increasing Female Labor Force Participation Relevant?

1. Why is Increasing Female Labor Force Participation Relevant? »

Source: Unlocking Female Employment Potential in Europe : Drivers and Benefits

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Lone Engbo Christiansen , Huidan Lin , Joana Pereira , Petia Topalova , and Rima Turk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513562513

Keywords: Corporate governance, Gender equality, Labor force participation, Labor force policy, Output growth, women, labor force, gender, participation, labor

Europe’s population is aging and productivity growth has declined. Potential output growth in Europe has declined markedly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis (IMF 2015), owing in pa...

4. Policies Should Focus on Leveling the Playing Field

4. Policies Should Focus on Leveling the Playing Field »

Source: Unlocking Female Employment Potential in Europe : Drivers and Benefits

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Lone Engbo Christiansen , Huidan Lin , Joana Pereira , Petia Topalova , and Rima Turk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513562513

Keywords: Corporate governance, Gender equality, Labor force participation, Labor force policy, Output growth, women, labor force, gender, participation, labor

For women in Europe, the decision to work is not just a personal choice—policies do have an influence. Our study shows that more education, lower birth rates, exposure to working mothers, and fa...