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Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account

Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account »

Source: Challenging the Empirical Evidence From Present Value Models of the Current Account

Volume/Issue: 2004/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jacques Miniane , and Benoît Mercereau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2004

ISBN: 9781451852929

Keywords: present value model, model evaluation, correlation, probability, covariance, statistic, Bayesian Analysis, Model Evaluation and Selection, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Under near-singularity conditions typically generated by persistence in current account data the predictions of present value models become extremely sensitive to small sample estimation error. Moreover, traditiona...

Money Demand in the Euro Area

Money Demand in the Euro Area »

Source: Money Demand in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand (Today)?

Volume/Issue: 2002/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zenon Kontolemis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2002

ISBN: 9781451859423

Keywords: EMU, Taylor Rule, Cointegration, inflation, equation, equations, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models,

The paper reviews the stability of long-run money demand in the euro area in the light of recent revisions to M3 data. The analysis confirms the existence of a stable long-run money demand, although the estimated e...

Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream

Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream »

Source: Avoid Filling Swiss Cheese with Whipped Cream : Imputation Techniques and Evaluation Procedures for Cross-Country Time Series

Volume/Issue: 2011/151

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Weber , and Michaela Denk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455270507

Keywords: Missing or incomplete data, imputation quality, statistical matching, time series, missing data, algorithms, statistical methods, cluster analysis, Estimation, Model Evaluation and Selection

International organizations collect data from national authorities to create multivariate cross-sectional time series for their analyses. As data from countries with not yet well-established statistical systems may...

An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones

An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones »

Source: An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones

Volume/Issue: 1991/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Donald Mathieson , Robert Flood , and Andrew Rose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 1991

ISBN: 9781451843163

Keywords: EMS, exchange rates, nonlinear, target-zone., exchange rate, equation, nonlinear models, rate of change

In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Mon...

Assessing the Impact of a Change in the Composition of Public Spending

Assessing the Impact of a Change in the Composition of Public Spending »

Source: Assessing the Impact of a Change in the Composition of Public Spending : A DSGE Approach

Volume/Issue: 2007/168

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ivan Tchakarov , and Roland Straub

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2007

ISBN: 9781451867329

Keywords: Public consumption, DSGE models, private investment, private capital, competitive markets, budget constraint,

Despite intense calls for safeguarding public investment in Europe, public investment expenditure, when measured in relation to GDP, has steadily fallen in the last three decades, evoking fears that economic activi...

Fiscal Decentralization and Governance

Fiscal Decentralization and Governance »

Source: Fiscal Decentralization and Governance : A Cross-Country Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2001/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2001

ISBN: 9781451849240

Keywords: decentralization, revenue mobilization, subnational governments, federalism, Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior,

Based on cross-country data for up to 78 countries, this paper shows that fiscal decentralization-the assignment of expenditure and revenue mobilization functions to subnational levels of government-is associated w...

Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium-Term Horizons

Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium-Term Horizons »

Source: Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium-Term Horizons

Volume/Issue: 2003/131

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Turgut Kisinbay

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

ISBN: 9781451855302

Keywords: GARCH, high-frequency data, realized volatility, integrated volatility, and asymmetric volatility, forecasting, statistics, sampling, standard deviation, maximum likelihood estimation

Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility from linear GARCH models with asymmetric ones. We consider horizons extending to 30 days. Forecast...

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area »

Source: Structural Reforms in the Euro Area : Economic Impact and Role of Synchronization Across Markets and Countries

Volume/Issue: 2006/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Everaert , and Werner Schule

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451863970

Keywords: markups, labor market, real interest rate, nominal interest rate, inflation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Using the IMF's Global Economic Model, calibrated to the European Union, the effects of reform in product and labor markets are quantified for both a large and a small euro area economy. When markups in these marke...

Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions

Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions »

Source: Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions

Volume/Issue: 1999/128

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1999

ISBN: 9781451855036

Keywords: Saving behavior, OECD, cross-country studies, panel data models, slope heterogeneity, dynamics, Ricardian effect, time series, mean group, correlation

This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynami...

Can Institutional Reform Reduce Job Destruction and Unemployment Duration? Yes it Can

Can Institutional Reform Reduce Job Destruction and Unemployment Duration? Yes it Can »

Source: Can Institutional Reform Reduce Job Destruction and Unemployment Duration? Yes it Can

Volume/Issue: 2012/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Esther Perez Ruiz , and Yao Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463937140

Keywords: Search model, unemployment inflows, unemployment duration, unemployment, unemployment rates, unemployment rate, employment, Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General

We read search theory's unemployment equilibrium condition as an Iso-Unemployment Curve(IUC).The IUC is the locus of job destruction rates and expected unemployment durations rendering the same unemployment level....