Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Chikako Oka
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 January 2003
Keywords: early warning, probability, currency crises, debt service, external debt, debt outstanding, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,
This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed...