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Inflation Targeting and Communication

Inflation Targeting and Communication »

Source: Inflation Targeting and Communication : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports

Volume/Issue: 2008/234

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katerina Smídková , Viktor Kotlán , David Navrátil , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451870923

Keywords: inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation r...

Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction*

Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction* »

Source: Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction

Volume/Issue: 2008/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Athanasios Orphanides , Spencer Dale , and Pär Österholm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

ISBN: 9781451869224

Keywords: Forecasts, Learning, inflation, central bank,

Much of the information communicated by central banks is noisy or imperfect. This paper considers the potential benefits and limitations of central bank communications in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning...

Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time

Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time »

Source: Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time : How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?

Volume/Issue: 2010/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jens Clausen , and Bianca Clausen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451963380

Keywords: Real-time data, output gap, Phillips curve, inflation forecast, monetary policy, forecasting inflation, inflation forecasts,

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an infor...

United Kingdom

United Kingdom »

Source: United Kingdom : Selected Issues Paper

Volume/Issue: 2011/221

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781462337521

Keywords: inflation equation, inflation rate, annual inflation, forecasting inflation

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discuss...

United Kingdom: Selected Issues Paper

United Kingdom: Selected Issues Paper »

Source: United Kingdom : Selected Issues Paper

Volume/Issue: 2011/221

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781462337521

Keywords: inflation equation, inflation rate, annual inflation, forecasting inflation

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discuss...

United Kingdom: Selected Issues Paper

United Kingdom: Selected Issues Paper »

Source: United Kingdom : Selected Issues Paper

Volume/Issue: 2011/221

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781462337521

Keywords: inflation equation, inflation rate, annual inflation, forecasting inflation

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discuss...

Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts

Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts »

Source: Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Turgut Kisinbay , Eric Parrado , Rodolfo Maino , and Jorge Canales Kriljenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2006

ISBN: 9781451863826

Keywords: Inflation forecasting, communication, central bank, inflation forecasts, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation,

How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses elements for building a comprehensive platform for an inflation forecasting framework. It describes th...

Writing Clearly

Writing Clearly »

Source: Writing Clearly : ECB's Monetary Policy Communication

Volume/Issue: 2008/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Cihak , Katerina Smídková , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451871104

Keywords: Communication, inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts, inflation target,

The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written com...

Monetary Policy and Inflation Indicators for Finland

Monetary Policy and Inflation Indicators for Finland »

Source: Monetary Policy and Inflation Indicators for Finland

Volume/Issue: 1995/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Mühleisen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1995

ISBN: 9781451942910

Keywords: gdp deflator, monetary conditions, inflation forecasts

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, inclu...

Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap »

Source: Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Volume/Issue: 2001/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Angel Ubide , and Kevin Ross

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

ISBN: 9781451874457

Keywords: Output gaps, unobservable components, inflation, forecasting, annual inflation, equation, survey,

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending o...