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Inflation Targeting and Communication

Inflation Targeting and Communication »

Source: Inflation Targeting and Communication : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports

Volume/Issue: 2008/234

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katerina Smídková , Viktor Kotlán , David Navrátil , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451870923

Keywords: inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation r...

Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts

Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts »

Source: Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Turgut Kisinbay , Eric Parrado , Rodolfo Maino , and Jorge Canales Kriljenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2006

ISBN: 9781451863826

Keywords: Inflation forecasting, communication, central bank, inflation forecasts, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation,

How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses elements for building a comprehensive platform for an inflation forecasting framework. It describes th...

Writing Clearly

Writing Clearly »

Source: Writing Clearly : ECB's Monetary Policy Communication

Volume/Issue: 2008/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Cihak , Katerina Smídková , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451871104

Keywords: Communication, inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts, inflation target,

The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written com...

A Subsistence Linked Economy

A Subsistence Linked Economy »

Source: A Subsistence Linked Economy : The Case of the Solomon Islands

Volume/Issue: 1989/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 1989

ISBN: 9781451947762

Keywords: money demand, equation, inflation, simultaneous equation, forecasting

How are money demand, income, and the price level affected when a significant portion of the economically active population reverts to and withdraws from subsistence economic activity? This paper tries to find a qu...

New Zealand

New Zealand »

Source: New Zealand : Recent Economic Developments

Volume/Issue: 1996/14

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 February 1996

ISBN: 9781451830132

Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, monetary conditions, price stability, inflation forecasts

This paper reviews economic developments in New Zealand during 1992-95. According to the production measure, growth began to pick up in the middle of 1991, rising to about 3 percent in 1992/93, before jumping to ne...

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India »

Source: Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India : An Empirical Exploration

Volume/Issue: 2010/84

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Patra , and Partha Ray

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

ISBN: 9781451982640

Keywords: Inflation Expectation, real interest rate, inflation forecasts, inflationary pressures,

This paper pursues a computationally intensive approach to generate future inflation, followed by an exploration of the determinants of inflation expectations by estimating a new Keynesian type Phillips curve that...

Inflation Reports and Models

Inflation Reports and Models »

Source: Inflation Reports and Models : How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?

Volume/Issue: 2014/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , Jaromír Hurník , and Katerina Smidkova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2014

ISBN: 9781498387613

Keywords: Kalman filter, monetary policy communication, inflation, central bank, aggregate demand, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by...

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation »

Source: Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2004/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

ISBN: 9781451851427

Keywords: Core Inflation, cointegration, statistics, equation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evo...

Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia »

Source: Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

Volume/Issue: 2002/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Uma Ramakrishnan , and Athanasios Vamvakidis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2002

ISBN: 9781451853483

Keywords: inflation forecasting, monetary policy, price inflation, monetary fund, money supply, Model Construction and Estimation, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possibl...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Source: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...