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Inflation Targeting and Communication

Inflation Targeting and Communication »

Source: Inflation Targeting and Communication : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports

Volume/Issue: 2008/234

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katerina Smídková , Viktor Kotlán , David Navrátil , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451870923

Keywords: inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation r...

Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction*

Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction* »

Source: Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction

Volume/Issue: 2008/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Athanasios Orphanides , Spencer Dale , and Pär Österholm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

ISBN: 9781451869224

Keywords: Forecasts, Learning, inflation, central bank,

Much of the information communicated by central banks is noisy or imperfect. This paper considers the potential benefits and limitations of central bank communications in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning...

Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time

Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time »

Source: Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time : How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?

Volume/Issue: 2010/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jens Clausen , and Bianca Clausen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451963380

Keywords: Real-time data, output gap, Phillips curve, inflation forecast, monetary policy, forecasting inflation, inflation forecasts,

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an infor...

Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa

Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa »

Source: Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa

Volume/Issue: 2007/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Arora

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2007

ISBN: 9781451866872

Keywords: inflation, inflation forecasts, monetary policy transparency, inflation targeting

The transparency of monetary policy in South Africa has increased substantially since the end of the 1990s; but little empirical work has been done to examine the economic benefits of the increased transparency. Th...

Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts

Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts »

Source: Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Turgut Kisinbay , Eric Parrado , Rodolfo Maino , and Jorge Canales Kriljenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2006

ISBN: 9781451863826

Keywords: Inflation forecasting, communication, central bank, inflation forecasts, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation,

How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses elements for building a comprehensive platform for an inflation forecasting framework. It describes th...

A Subsistence Linked Economy

A Subsistence Linked Economy »

Source: A Subsistence Linked Economy : The Case of the Solomon Islands

Volume/Issue: 1989/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 1989

ISBN: 9781451947762

Keywords: money demand, equation, inflation, simultaneous equation, forecasting

How are money demand, income, and the price level affected when a significant portion of the economically active population reverts to and withdraws from subsistence economic activity? This paper tries to find a qu...

Monetary Policy and Inflation Indicators for Finland

Monetary Policy and Inflation Indicators for Finland »

Source: Monetary Policy and Inflation Indicators for Finland

Volume/Issue: 1995/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Mühleisen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1995

ISBN: 9781451942910

Keywords: gdp deflator, monetary conditions, inflation forecasts

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, inclu...

Writing Clearly

Writing Clearly »

Source: Writing Clearly : ECB's Monetary Policy Communication

Volume/Issue: 2008/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Cihak , Katerina Smídková , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451871104

Keywords: Communication, inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts, inflation target,

The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written com...

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India »

Source: Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India : An Empirical Exploration

Volume/Issue: 2010/84

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Patra , and Partha Ray

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

ISBN: 9781451982640

Keywords: Inflation Expectation, real interest rate, inflation forecasts, inflationary pressures,

This paper pursues a computationally intensive approach to generate future inflation, followed by an exploration of the determinants of inflation expectations by estimating a new Keynesian type Phillips curve that...

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle »

Source: The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

Volume/Issue: 2013/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2013

ISBN: 9781484334720

Keywords: Phillips Curve, price inflation, inflation dynamics, monetary fund, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation,

Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation...