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World Economic Outlook, October 2018
			: Challenges to Steady Growth

World Economic Outlook, October 2018 : Challenges to Steady Growth »

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 January 2019

Language: Chinese

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484382844.081

ISBN: 9781484382844

Keywords: Inflation rates, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Inflation research, Inflation risk, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Gross domestric product growth, Output growth, Global Financial Stability Risks, International trade

Global growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the pa...

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle »

Source: The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

Volume/Issue: 2013/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2013

ISBN: 9781484334720

Keywords: Phillips Curve, price inflation, inflation dynamics, monetary fund, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation,

Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation...

Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap »

Source: Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Volume/Issue: 2001/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Angel Ubide , and Kevin Ross

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

ISBN: 9781451874457

Keywords: Output gaps, unobservable components, inflation, forecasting, annual inflation, equation, survey,

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending o...

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process »

Source: Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process : A Simple Framework and New Facts

Volume/Issue: 2012/296

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Coibion , and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

ISBN: 9781475519242

Keywords: Numbers, Information Rigidity, Survey Forecasts, inflation, rational expectations, monetary policy, inflation forecasts, monetary economics, Survey Forecasts., General,

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic signifi...

Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis

Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis »

Source: Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2009/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Clinton , Marianne Johnson , Huigang Chen , Ondrej Kamenik , and Douglas Laxton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

ISBN: 9781451873610

Keywords: forecasting and simulation, forecast confidence bands, inflation, equation, confidence interval, confidence intervals,

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, an...

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy1

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy1 »

Source: A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

Volume/Issue: 2008/278

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Igor Ermolaev , Michel Juillard , Ioan Carabenciov , Charles Freedman , Douglas Laxton , Ondrej Kamenik , and Dmitry Korshunov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2008

ISBN: 9781451871364

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, equation, correlation, forecasting, standard deviation,

This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both...

Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

ISBN: 9781451872323

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, equation, forecasting, real interest rate,

This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which e...

What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low

What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low »

Source: What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low : Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach

Volume/Issue: 2016/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yasser Abdih , Ravi Balakrishnan , and Baoping Shang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 July 2016

ISBN: 9781498347297

Keywords: Inflation modeling and forecasting, Phillips curve, core goods and services inflation.

Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model...

The Inverted Fisher Hypothesis

The Inverted Fisher Hypothesis »

Source: The Inverted Fisher Hypothesis : Inflation Forecastability and Asset Substitution"

Volume/Issue: 2000/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Woon Choi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2000

ISBN: 9781451859850

Keywords: Inverted Fisher hypothesis, asset substitution, inflation forecastability, switching regression, threshold effect, nominal interest rate, inflation process, high inflation, inflation rate

This paper examines the implications of inflation persistence for the inverted Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates do not adjust to inflation because of a high degree of substitutability between money and...

Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States

Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States »

Source: Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States

Volume/Issue: 2012/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oya Celasun , Lev Ratnovski , and Roxana Mihet

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502633

Keywords: inflation rate, aggregate demand, treasury bonds, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a sta...