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Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process »

Source: Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process : A Simple Framework and New Facts

Volume/Issue: 2012/296

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Coibion , and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

ISBN: 9781475519242

Keywords: Numbers, Information Rigidity, Survey Forecasts, inflation, rational expectations, monetary policy, inflation forecasts, monetary economics, Survey Forecasts., General,

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic signifi...

Ghostbusting

Ghostbusting »

Source: Ghostbusting : Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

Volume/Issue: 2004/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

ISBN: 9781451856675

Keywords: Output gap, inflation forecasting, forecasting, statistics, statistic, inflationary pressures, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic...

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth »

Source: Inflation Targeting and Output Growth : Empirical Evidence for the European Union

Volume/Issue: 2005/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2005

ISBN: 9781451861082

Keywords: inflation, inflation rate, monetary authorities, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic mode...

Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy

Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy »

Source: Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy : Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography

Volume/Issue: 2006/41

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Ehrmann , Marcel Fratzscher , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2006

ISBN: 9781451863017

Keywords: ECB, forecast, geography, history, heterogeneity, Taylor rule, learning, transmission, survey data, communication

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Source: An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

Structural Reforms in the Euro Area »

Source: Structural Reforms in the Euro Area : Economic Impact and Role of Synchronization Across Markets and Countries

Volume/Issue: 2006/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Everaert , and Werner Schule

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451863970

Keywords: markups, labor market, real interest rate, nominal interest rate, inflation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Using the IMF's Global Economic Model, calibrated to the European Union, the effects of reform in product and labor markets are quantified for both a large and a small euro area economy. When markups in these marke...

Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in Multimod

Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in Multimod »

Source: Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in Multimod

Volume/Issue: 2003/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Douglas Laxton , and Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

ISBN: 9781451845044

Keywords: Macroeconomic models, simulation properties, inflation, monetary policy, aggregate demand, nominal interest rate, monetary authority, Model Evaluation and Selection, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Public Economics: General,

This paper was prepared as part of a euro area macroeconomic model comparisons project. Four standard macroeconomic experiments are considered to illustrate the differences in dynamic adjustment properties of two v...

Monetary Policy Under EMU

Monetary Policy Under EMU »

Source: Monetary Policy Under EMU : Differences in the Transmission Mechanism?

Volume/Issue: 2001/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Zenon Kontolemis , and Joaquim Levy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2001

ISBN: 9781451852615

Keywords: Transmission Mechanism, inflation, monetary transmission, central bank, monetary transmission mechanism, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy, Central Banking

This study identifies differences in the monetary policy transmission mechanism across the countries in the euro area. It is argued that part of the differences in the response of economic activity to monetary poli...

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process
			: A Simple Framework and New Facts

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process : A Simple Framework and New Facts »

Volume/Issue: 2012/296

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Coibion , and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475519242.001

ISBN: 9781475519242

Keywords: Numbers, Information Rigidity, Survey Forecasts, inflation, rational expectations, monetary policy, inflation forecasts, monetary economics, Survey Forecasts., General,

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic signifi...

Ghostbusting
			: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

Ghostbusting : Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451856675.001

ISBN: 9781451856675

Keywords: Output gap, inflation forecasting, forecasting, statistics, statistic, inflationary pressures, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic...