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Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Volume/Issue: 2019/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Hayk Avetisyan , Douglas Laxton , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Lusine Torosyan , and Hou Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 February 2019

ISBN: 9781484398067

Keywords: Business cycles, Unemployment, Potential output, Capacity utilization, Production growth, Macroeconomic Modeling;output gap;NAIRU;hysteresis;potential growth;Volcker

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep r...

Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models

Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models »

Source: Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models

Volume/Issue: 2019/62

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Gurara , Giovanni Melina , and Luis-Felipe Zanna

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 March 2019

ISBN: 9781498302883

Keywords: National income, Social safety nets, Economic growth, Public investment programs, Public investments, Natural resources, Public Investment, Debt Sustainability, Small Open DSGE Models, Developing Countries.

Over the past seven years, the DIG and DIGNAR models have complemented the IMF and World Bank debt sustainability framework (DSF) analysis, over 65 country applications. They have provided useful insights in the co...

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation1

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation1 »

Source: Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Volume/Issue: 2019/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Acevedo Mejia , Claudio Baccianti , Mico Mrkaic , Natalija Novta , Evgenia Pugacheva , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

ISBN: 9781513509853

Keywords: Economic policy, Economic growth, Economic recovery, Financial crises, Total factor productivity, Climate change, Climate policy, Adaptation to climate change, Weather shock, structural policy

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical e...

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? »

Source: How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

Volume/Issue: 2018/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zidong An , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2018

ISBN: 9781484344873

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic recession, Economic models, Economic growth, Business cycles, Production growth, Financial crises, recession, bias, efficiency

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession ye...

How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries*

New
How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries* »

Source: How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries

Volume/Issue: 2019/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Remi Jedwab , Prakash Loungani , and Anthony Yezer

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

ISBN: 9781513513782

Keywords: Cost of living, Migrations, Economic growth, National income, Low income countries, Urbanization, Cities, Urban Giants, Population, Standard Urban Model

It is obvious that holding city population constant, differences in cities across the world are enormous. Urban giants in poor countries are not large using measures such as land area, interior space or value of ou...

New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness

New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness »

Source: New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness

Volume/Issue: 2019/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manuk Ghazanchyan , Li Zhao , Steve Brito , and Vivian Parlak

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 July 2019

ISBN: 9781498320818

Keywords: Financial crises, Real effective exchange rates, Economic growth, Unit labor cost, Current account deficits, price elasticity, income elasticity, Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), gravity model, tourism arrivals and expenditure

Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for th...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis »

Volume/Issue: 2019/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Hayk Avetisyan , Douglas Laxton , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Lusine Torosyan , and Hou Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 February 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484398067.001

ISBN: 9781484398067

Keywords: Business cycles, Unemployment, Potential output, Capacity utilization, Production growth, Macroeconomic Modeling;output gap;NAIRU;hysteresis;potential growth;Volcker

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep r...

Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models

Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models »

Volume/Issue: 2019/62

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Gurara , Giovanni Melina , and Luis-Felipe Zanna

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 March 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498302883.001

ISBN: 9781498302883

Keywords: National income, Social safety nets, Economic growth, Public investment programs, Public investments, Natural resources, Public Investment, Debt Sustainability, Small Open DSGE Models, Developing Countries.

Over the past seven years, the DIG and DIGNAR models have complemented the IMF and World Bank debt sustainability framework (DSF) analysis, over 65 country applications. They have provided useful insights in the co...

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation »

Volume/Issue: 2019/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Acevedo Mejia , Claudio Baccianti , Mico Mrkaic , Natalija Novta , Evgenia Pugacheva , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509853.001

ISBN: 9781513509853

Keywords: Economic policy, Economic growth, Economic recovery, Financial crises, Total factor productivity, Climate change, Climate policy, Adaptation to climate change, Weather shock, structural policy

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical e...

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zidong An , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484344873.001

ISBN: 9781484344873

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic recession, Economic models, Economic growth, Business cycles, Production growth, Financial crises, recession, bias, efficiency

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession ye...