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Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa

Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa »

Source: Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa

Volume: 11

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Nir Klein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510140

Keywords: Production growth, Productivity, Economic models, Economic growth

This paper provides an assessment of the South African potential output for the period 1985-2010 by applying both structural and nonstructural estimation techniques. The analysis suggests that, while potential out...

1. Introduction

1. Introduction »

Source: Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Nir Klein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510140

Keywords: Production growth, Productivity, Economic models, Economic growth

This paper provides an assessment of the South African potential output for the period 1985–2010 by applying both structural and nonstructural estimation techniques. The analysis suggests that,...

2. Review of Estimation Methods

2. Review of Estimation Methods »

Source: Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Nir Klein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510140

Keywords: Production growth, Productivity, Economic models, Economic growth

Because estimates of potential output are subjected to considerable uncertainty, we use several alternative estimation techniques. The different approaches can be classified into some of the de-trending stat...

3. Estimation Results

3. Estimation Results »

Source: Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Nir Klein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510140

Keywords: Production growth, Productivity, Economic models, Economic growth

Table 1 presents the estimation results by each methodology divided into several subsamples to identify whether there was a significant shift in potential output growth over the sample’s period....

4. Potential Growth and Output Gap in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: An International Perspective

4. Potential Growth and Output Gap in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: An International Perspective »

Source: Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Nir Klein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510140

Keywords: Production growth, Productivity, Economic models, Economic growth

The sharp deceleration in the potential output growth is well reflected in the developments in labor and capital inputs. As shown in Figures 11 and 12, South Africa is among the few countries that experience...

South Africa: Macro Policy Mix and Its Effects on Growth and the Real Exchange Rate–Empirical Evidence and GIMF Simulations

South Africa: Macro Policy Mix and Its Effects on Growth and the Real Exchange Rate–Empirical Evidence and GIMF Simulations »

Source: South Africa: Macro Policy Mix and Its Effects on Growth and the Real Exchange Rate--Empirical Evidence and GIMF Simulations

Volume: 11

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Jorge Canales Kriljenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510157

Keywords: Economic models, Economic growth, Real effective exchange rates, Reserves accumulation

This paper examines whether a mix of tighter fiscal policy, looser monetary policy, and greater reserve build-up would increase growth and depreciate the rand in real terms. The experience of South Africa over the...

1. Executive Summary

1. Executive Summary »

Source: South Africa: Macro Policy Mix and Its Effects on Growth and the Real Exchange Rate--Empirical Evidence and GIMF Simulations

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Jorge Canales Kriljenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510157

Keywords: Economic models, Economic growth, Real effective exchange rates, Reserves accumulation

Would a tighter fiscal, looser monetary, and greater reserve buildup increase growth and depreciate the rand in real terms? The existing empirical and theoretical literature would say “maybe.” Such a policy...

2. Cross-Country Evidence

2. Cross-Country Evidence »

Source: South Africa: Macro Policy Mix and Its Effects on Growth and the Real Exchange Rate--Empirical Evidence and GIMF Simulations

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Jorge Canales Kriljenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510157

Keywords: Economic models, Economic growth, Real effective exchange rates, Reserves accumulation

The external environment strongly affects emerging markets. Yet, some countries grow faster than others over the same period. Most would accept that economies with lower income levels are gradually catching...

3. Simulations Using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

3. Simulations Using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model »

Source: South Africa: Macro Policy Mix and Its Effects on Growth and the Real Exchange Rate--Empirical Evidence and GIMF Simulations

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Jorge Canales Kriljenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510157

Keywords: Economic models, Economic growth, Real effective exchange rates, Reserves accumulation

The IMF’s GIMF model is a useful tool for analyzing the interaction among macroeconomic policies. It is a dynamic general equilibrium model in which consumers react to incentives created by policy decisions....

4. Insights from the Experience of South Africa

4. Insights from the Experience of South Africa »

Source: South Africa: Macro Policy Mix and Its Effects on Growth and the Real Exchange Rate--Empirical Evidence and GIMF Simulations

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Jorge Canales Kriljenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 August 2011

ISBN: 9781475510157

Keywords: Economic models, Economic growth, Real effective exchange rates, Reserves accumulation

How would a change in the policy mix affect South Africa? Although the cross-country experience and theoretical simulations provide useful context, the question can only be answered properly by exploring the...