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Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved? »

Source: Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Volume/Issue: 2004/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Zalduendo , and Catia Batista

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2004

ISBN: 9781451874488

Keywords: Model estimation, forecasting, growth, inflation, statistic, terms of trade, inflation rates, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Numerous reports have noted that the IMF's medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sam...

How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants

How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants »

Source: How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants : Price and Repayment Capacity

Volume/Issue: 2006/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ken Miyajima

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863451

Keywords: GDP-linked bonds, Monte Carlo methods, binomial model, inflation, growth rates, real gdp, inflation rates, gdp growth,

Following a brief review of the recent history of GDP-linked instruments, this paper proposes a set of tools to examine the quantitative properties of GDP-linked warrants. It argues that trigger conditions should b...

Growth Slowdown in Bureaucratic Economic Systems

Growth Slowdown in Bureaucratic Economic Systems »

Source: Growth Slowdown in Bureaucratic Economic Systems : An Issue Revisited

Volume/Issue: 2001/6

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , and Zuzana Brixiova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2001

ISBN: 9781451842296

Keywords: Bureaucracy, planning, growth, growth rates, linear trend, statistics, economic growth, time series, One, Two

Bureaucratically organized systems tend to be less efficient than economies in which agents are free to choose their output targets, as well as the means to meet them. This paper presents a simple model of planner-...

This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth1

This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth1 »

Source: This Time They Are Different : Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

Volume/Issue: 2013/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Markus Eberhardt , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 December 2013

ISBN: 9781484309285

Keywords: growth, common factor model, asymmetric ARDL, debt stock, debt terms, debt threshold, debt term, Models with Panel Data, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relat...

New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies

New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies »

Source: New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies

Volume/Issue: 2006/244

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sanjeev Gupta , Alejandro Simone , and Alex Segura-Ubiergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2006

ISBN: 9781451865042

Keywords: growth, fiscal balance, transition countries, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General,

This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal adjustment and real GDP growth in a panel of 26 transition economies during 1992-2001. Unlike most previous studies using cross-country regressions, the paper fin...

Modeling with Macro-Financial Linkages

Modeling with Macro-Financial Linkages »

Source: Modeling with Macro-Financial Linkages : Credit and Policy Shocks in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2009/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Inci Ötker , and David Vávra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2009

ISBN: 9781451872705

Keywords: macro-financial linkages, modeling, policy analysis, financial frictions, credit growth, credit crunch, bank loans, bank lending, banking, bank credit

This paper develops a stylized, small, open economy macro model that incorporates an explicit and non-trivial role for financial intermediation. It illustrates how such a model could be used for policy analysis in...

The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness

The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness »

Source: The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness

Volume/Issue: 2007/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ashoka Mody , Deniz Igan , and Stefania Fabrizio

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2007

ISBN: 9781451866612

Keywords: International competitiveness, Product quality, reer, trading partners, export growth, world exports, export performance, Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Technological Change: Other,

Despite the appreciation of the exchange rate, the eight Central and Eastern European countries (the CEE-8) that entered the European Union in May 2004 have achieved a decade of impressive export growth, expanding...

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Zalduendo , and Catia Batista

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451874488.001

ISBN: 9781451874488

Keywords: Model estimation, forecasting, growth, inflation, statistic, terms of trade, inflation rates, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

Numerous reports have noted that the IMF's medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sam...

How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants
			: Price and Repayment Capacity

How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants : Price and Repayment Capacity »

Volume/Issue: 2006/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ken Miyajima

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863451.001

ISBN: 9781451863451

Keywords: GDP-linked bonds, Monte Carlo methods, binomial model, inflation, growth rates, real gdp, inflation rates, gdp growth,

Following a brief review of the recent history of GDP-linked instruments, this paper proposes a set of tools to examine the quantitative properties of GDP-linked warrants. It argues that trigger conditions should b...

Growth Slowdown in Bureaucratic Economic Systems
			: An Issue Revisited

Growth Slowdown in Bureaucratic Economic Systems : An Issue Revisited »

Volume/Issue: 2001/6

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , and Zuzana Brixiova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842296.001

ISBN: 9781451842296

Keywords: Bureaucracy, planning, growth, growth rates, linear trend, statistics, economic growth, time series, One, Two

Bureaucratically organized systems tend to be less efficient than economies in which agents are free to choose their output targets, as well as the means to meet them. This paper presents a simple model of planner-...