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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Volume/Issue: 2014/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 April 2014

ISBN: 9781484355282

Keywords: out-of-sample performance, currency crisis, crisis episodes, global financial crisis, General, out-of-sample performance.,

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29...

The Crisis and Miss Emily’s Perceptions

The Crisis and Miss Emily’s Perceptions »

Source: The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Luc Leruth , and Pierre Nicolas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2010

ISBN: 9781462327331

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, paper, monetary policy, probability, scientists, financial sector

The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions draws an analogy between the theme and the characters in Faulkner's short story "A Rose for Emily" and the global financial crisis. In Faulkner's story, all the characters tr...

Key Issues Note by the IMF Managing Director to the IMFC on the Global Economy and Financial Markets-Outlook and Policy Responses

Key Issues Note by the IMF Managing Director to the IMFC on the Global Economy and Financial Markets-Outlook and Policy Responses »

Source: Key Issues Note by the IMF Managing Director to the IMFC on the Global Economy and Financial Markets-Outlook and Policy Responses

Volume/Issue: 2009/075

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 September 2009

ISBN: 9781498335386

Keywords: Capital markets, Demand, Economic recovery, Financial crisis, Financial sector, Fiscal policy, Fiscal reforms, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, International Monetary and Financial Committee, Monetary policy

...

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes1

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes1 »

Source: The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes

Volume/Issue: 2013/8

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock , and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2013

ISBN: 9781557755308

Keywords: Risk-off episodes, safe haven currencies, exchange rate, currency markets, capital flows, global financial crisis,

Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen,...

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exchange Rates and Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exchange Rates and Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exchange Rates and Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Volume: 09

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Stella Kaendera , S. V. S. Dixit , and Nabil Ben Ltaifa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 December 2009

ISBN: 9781462389889

Keywords: Exchange rate stability, Exchange rates, exchange rate, foreign exchange, global financial crisis, foreign exchange market

This paper studies the evolution of the exchange rates of sub-Saharan African currencies in the context of the global financial crisis. In particular, it analyzes the reasons behind the differences in the magnitude...

Statement by the Managing Director to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on the IMF's Post-Crisis Role

Statement by the Managing Director to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on the IMF's Post-Crisis Role »

Source: Statement by the Managing Director to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on the IMF's Post-Crisis Role

Volume/Issue: 2009/074

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 September 2009

ISBN: 9781498335362

Keywords: Crisis prevention, Enhanced surveillance, Financial crisis, Financial systems, Fund arrangements, Fund liquidity, Fund policies, Fund role, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, International Monetary and Financial Committee

...

How Did Emerging Markets Cope in the Crisis?

How Did Emerging Markets Cope in the Crisis? »

Source: How Did Emerging Markets Cope in the Crisis?

Volume/Issue: 2010/064

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 July 2010

ISBN: 9781498337250

Keywords: Cross country analysis, Economic recovery, Emerging markets, Financial crisis, Fiscal policy, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Monetary policy, External sector, Economic integration, Financial regulation and supervision

The IMF Executive Board has been considering reforms to strengthen the Fund's mandate to better equip the institution to safeguard global stability. Executive Directors have supported a range of reforms to moderniz...

Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance

Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance »

Source: Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance

Volume/Issue: 2015/076

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 December 2015

ISBN: 9781498344456

Keywords: Financial and Monetary Sector, Balance sheets, Systemically important financial institutions, External sector, Financial crises, data gap, balance sheet, global crisis, non-financial, spillovers

Balance sheets convey vital information about economic prospects and risks. Balance sheet analysis captures the role that financial frictions and mismatches play in creating fragility and amplifying shocks. This is...

Analytics of Systemic Crises and the Role of Global Financial Safety Nets

Analytics of Systemic Crises and the Role of Global Financial Safety Nets »

Source: Analytics of Systemic Crises and the Role of Global Financial Safety Nets

Volume/Issue: 2011/041

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 May 2011

ISBN: 9781498338813

Keywords: Cross country analysis, External shocks, Financial crisis, Financial safety nets, Fund arrangements, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Liquidity management, Monetary policy, Risk management, Real sector

In response to the global crisis, the Fund overhauled its lending toolkit and boosted its resources, strengthening its ability to pre-empt financial crises. This paper-with the companion paper on Mapping Cross-Bord...

CHAPTER 1 Introduction

CHAPTER 1 Introduction »

Source: The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Luc Leruth , and Pierre Nicolas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2010

ISBN: 9781462327331

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, paper, monetary policy, probability, scientists, financial sector

In one of his short stories, 1 William Faulkner presents an eccentric maiden lady living in a town in the south of the United States, completely withdrawn from a world that has ch...