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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Volume/Issue: 2014/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 April 2014

ISBN: 9781484355282

Keywords: out-of-sample performance, currency crisis, crisis episodes, global financial crisis, General, out-of-sample performance.,

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29...

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes1

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes1 »

Source: The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes

Volume/Issue: 2013/8

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock , and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2013

ISBN: 9781557755308

Keywords: Risk-off episodes, safe haven currencies, exchange rate, currency markets, capital flows, global financial crisis,

Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen,...

World Saving1

World Saving1 »

Source: World Saving

Volume/Issue: 2014/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesco Grigoli , Alexander Herman , and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2014

ISBN: 9781475545517

Keywords: corporate saving, Global Financial Crisis, household saving, national saving, private saving, saving, income, future, trade, Models with Panel Data

This paper presents new evidence on the behavior of saving in the world, by extending previous empirical research in five dimensions. First, it is based on a very large and recent database, covering 165 countries f...

Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy?

Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy? »

Source: Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy?

Volume/Issue: 2012/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Harun Alp , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2012

ISBN: 9781475542851

Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE model, global financial crisis, Thai floods, emerging markets, exchange rate, inflation, exchange rate regime, emerging markets.

Thailand had to endure three major shocks during 2008-2011: the global financial crisis, the Japanese earthquake, and the Thai floods of 2011. Over this period, consistent with its inflation targeting framework, th...

The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States

The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States »

Source: The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States : Bad Luck or Bad Policies?

Volume/Issue: 2010/130

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

ISBN: 9781455201136

Keywords: credit boom, sudden stop, global financial crisis, capital inflows, exchange rate, subsidiaries, foreign exchange, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

In the past decade, most of the EU New Member States experienced a severe credit-boom bust cycle. This paper argues that the credit boom-bust cycle was to a large extent the result of factors external to the region...

Crisis and Recovery

Crisis and Recovery »

Source: Crisis and Recovery : Role of the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Market Countries

Volume/Issue: 2010/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Tsangarides

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

ISBN: 9781455209422

Keywords: Global financial crisis, fixed exchange rate, growth, emerging market economies, exchange rate regime, exchange rate, current account balance, terms of trade

This paper examines the role of the exchange rate regime in explaining how emerging market economies fared in the recent global financial crisis, particularly in terms of output losses and growth resilience. After...

A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia

A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia »

Source: A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia

Volume/Issue: 2011/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio Buitron , Filiz Unsal , and Runchana Pongsaparn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2011

ISBN: 9781462314331

Keywords: Financial sector, Economic growth, Economic conditions, Asia, Forecasting models, Gross domestic product, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Financial conditions index, VAR, Dynamic Factor Analysis

We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting...

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2014/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484355282.001

ISBN: 9781484355282

Keywords: out-of-sample performance, currency crisis, crisis episodes, global financial crisis, General, out-of-sample performance.,

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29...

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes »

Volume/Issue: 2013/8

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock , and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557755308.001

ISBN: 9781557755308

Keywords: Risk-off episodes, safe haven currencies, exchange rate, currency markets, capital flows, global financial crisis,

Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen,...

World Saving

World Saving »

Volume/Issue: 2014/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesco Grigoli , Alexander Herman , and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475545517.001

ISBN: 9781475545517

Keywords: corporate saving, Global Financial Crisis, household saving, national saving, private saving, saving, income, future, trade, Models with Panel Data

This paper presents new evidence on the behavior of saving in the world, by extending previous empirical research in five dimensions. First, it is based on a very large and recent database, covering 165 countries f...