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Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts »

Source: Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2014/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2014

ISBN: 9781475584097

Keywords: forecast revisions, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s Law, Great Recession, forecast assessment, unemployment rate, unemployment forecasts, recession, employment, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correl...

Population Aging in Japan

Population Aging in Japan »

Source: Population Aging in Japan : Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability

Volume/Issue: 2001/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Mühleisen , and Hamid Faruqee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2001

ISBN: 9781451845976

Keywords: saving, general equilibrium analysis, social security, birth rate, elderly, Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation,

The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empir...

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region »

Source: Hong Kong Special Administrative Region : Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy

Volume/Issue: 2006/87

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lamin Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

ISBN: 9781451863475

Keywords: Productivity Growth, Fiscal Impact, Health Care Costs, pension, health care, elderly, dependency, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production

Hong Kong SAR's population is aging rapidly. This paper concludes that, without a change in policies, aging could adversely affect growth and living standards. While higher labor productivity growth and increased m...

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts »

Volume/Issue: 2014/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475584097.001

ISBN: 9781475584097

Keywords: forecast revisions, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s Law, Great Recession, forecast assessment, unemployment rate, unemployment forecasts, recession, employment, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correl...

Population Aging in Japan
			: Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability

Population Aging in Japan : Demographic Shock and Fiscal Sustainability »

Volume/Issue: 2001/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Mühleisen , and Hamid Faruqee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845976.001

ISBN: 9781451845976

Keywords: saving, general equilibrium analysis, social security, birth rate, elderly, Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation,

The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empir...

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
			: Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region : Macroeconomic Impact of an Aging Population in a Highly Open Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2006/87

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lamin Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863475.001

ISBN: 9781451863475

Keywords: Productivity Growth, Fiscal Impact, Health Care Costs, pension, health care, elderly, dependency, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production

Hong Kong SAR's population is aging rapidly. This paper concludes that, without a change in policies, aging could adversely affect growth and living standards. While higher labor productivity growth and increased m...