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The Use of Encompassing Tests for Forecast Combinations

The Use of Encompassing Tests for Forecast Combinations »

Source: The Use of Encompassing Tests for Forecast Combinations

Volume/Issue: 2007/264

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Turgut Kisinbay

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2007

ISBN: 9781451868272

Keywords: forecast combination, forecast encompassing, thick-modeling, forecasting, significance level, time series, significance levels, econometrics,

The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulne...

World Economic Outlook, October 2018
			: Challenges to Steady Growth

World Economic Outlook, October 2018 : Challenges to Steady Growth »

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 January 2019

Language: Chinese

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484382844.081

ISBN: 9781484382844

Keywords: Inflation rates, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Inflation research, Inflation risk, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Gross domestric product growth, Output growth, Global Financial Stability Risks, International trade

Global growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the pa...

World Economic Outlook, October 2018
			: Challenges to Steady Growth

World Economic Outlook, October 2018 : Challenges to Steady Growth »

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 October 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484376799.081

ISBN: 9781484376799

Keywords: Inflation rates, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Inflation research, Inflation risk, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Gross domestric product growth, Output growth, Global Financial Stability Risks, International trade

Global growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the pa...

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices »

Source: The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices

Volume/Issue: 1994/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1994

ISBN: 9781451927221

Keywords: commodity prices, equation, statistics, random walk, forecasting

The “traditional structural approach” to the determination of real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain the behavior of commodity prices. This fra...

Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts

Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts »

Source: Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts : Evidence from a Large International Panel

Volume/Issue: 2013/56

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475562958

Keywords: forecast, economic, information, emerging economies, real gdp, gdp growth, growth rate, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence d...

Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?

Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions? »

Source: Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?

Volume/Issue: 2013/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Bluedorn , Jörg Decressin , and Marco Terrones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2013

ISBN: 9781484353363

Keywords: Macroeconomic forecasting, Uncertainty, Binary dependent variable models, price, prices, market, spread, volatility, Forecasting and Simulation, Financial Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. I...

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Source: Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

The Yield Curve and Real Activity

The Yield Curve and Real Activity »

Source: The Yield Curve and Real Activity

Volume/Issue: 1993/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zuliu Hu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1993

ISBN: 9781451843705

Keywords: forecasting, stock price, stock prices, bonds, bond

The financial press frequently suggest that the shape of yield curve reflects information about the prospects of the economy. This paper attempts to formalize the link between the yield curve and the real economic...

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts »

Source: Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2014/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2014

ISBN: 9781475584097

Keywords: forecast revisions, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s Law, Great Recession, forecast assessment, unemployment rate, unemployment forecasts, recession, employment, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correl...

Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis

Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis »

Source: Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2009/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Clinton , Marianne Johnson , Huigang Chen , Ondrej Kamenik , and Douglas Laxton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

ISBN: 9781451873610

Keywords: forecasting and simulation, forecast confidence bands, inflation, equation, confidence interval, confidence intervals,

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, an...