Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 22 items :

  • Keyword: forecast x
Clear All Modify Search
Inflation Targeting and Communication

Inflation Targeting and Communication »

Source: Inflation Targeting and Communication : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports

Volume/Issue: 2008/234

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katerina Smídková , Viktor Kotlán , David Navrátil , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451870923

Keywords: inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation r...

Inflation Reports and Models

Inflation Reports and Models »

Source: Inflation Reports and Models : How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?

Volume/Issue: 2014/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , Jaromír Hurník , and Katerina Smidkova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2014

ISBN: 9781498387613

Keywords: Kalman filter, monetary policy communication, inflation, central bank, aggregate demand, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by...

Writing Clearly

Writing Clearly »

Source: Writing Clearly : ECB's Monetary Policy Communication

Volume/Issue: 2008/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Cihak , Katerina Smídková , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451871104

Keywords: Communication, inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts, inflation target,

The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written com...

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation »

Source: Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2004/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

ISBN: 9781451851427

Keywords: Core Inflation, cointegration, statistics, equation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evo...

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs »

Source: Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Volume/Issue: 2001/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Steven Phillips , and Alberto Musso

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2001

ISBN: 9781451846478

Keywords: Economic growth, Balance of payments, Inflation, Fund, Fund-supported adjustment programs, IMF, programs, projections, forecasts, statistics

'Program numbers' from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three ba...

Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems »

Source: Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices »

Source: Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Volume/Issue: 2006/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): C. Goodhart , Miguel Segoviano Basurto , and Boris Hofmann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2006

ISBN: 9781451864830

Keywords: Probability of default, macroeconomic shocks, financial surveillance, banking, bank lending, probability, Econometric Modeling: General, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the frag...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Source: Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Post-Crisis Recovery

Post-Crisis Recovery »

Source: Post-Crisis Recovery : When Does Increased Fiscal Discipline Work?

Volume/Issue: 2006/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pritha Mitra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 October 2006

ISBN: 9781451864793

Keywords: sovereign debt, foreign debt, long-term debt, budget surplus, General Aggregative Models: General, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data), Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Emerging market financial crises during the late 1990s were marked by sudden withdrawals of funds by foreign creditors, resulting in production declines. The IMF favored positive signals to potential foreign credit...