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Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Growth Forecast Errors and  Fiscal Multipliers

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers »

Source: Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Volume/Issue: 2013/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475576443

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers, growth forecast, fiscal balance, General, General, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated...

Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows1

Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows1 »

Source: Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows

Volume/Issue: 2012/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malika Pant , and Yanliang Miao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463937737

Keywords: Coincident Indicators, Capital Tracker, net capital flows, net capital, capital inflows, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicato...

Strengthening Post-Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise — A New Dataset

Strengthening Post-Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise — A New Dataset »

Source: Strengthening Post-Crisis Fiscal Credibility : Fiscal Councils on the Rise - A New Dataset

Volume/Issue: 2014/58

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Xavier Debrun , and Tidiane Kinda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 April 2014

ISBN: 9781475516135

Keywords: Credibility of fiscal policy, fiscal councils, forecast errors, fiscal council, fiscal institutions,

Institutions aimed at constraining policy discretion to promote sound fiscal policies are once again at the forefront of the policy debate. Interest in 'fiscal councils,' independent watchdogs active in the public...

International Reserve Adequacy in Central America

International Reserve Adequacy in Central America »

Source: International Reserve Adequacy in Central America

Volume/Issue: 2011/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kristin Magnussen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455268443

Keywords: Foreign reserves, balance of payments crises, financial dollarization, international reserves, external debt, exchange rate, emerging markets, current account, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Countries' absolute and relative international reserves adequacy has recently attracted considerable attention. The analysis has however concentrated on the largest and most advanced economies. We apply various met...

Cross-Country Linkages in Europe

Cross-Country Linkages in Europe »

Source: Cross-Country Linkages in Europe : A Global VAR Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2013/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yan Sun , Frigyes Heinz , and Giang Ho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2013

ISBN: 9781484345474

Keywords: Spillover, Global VAR, regional model, macro-financial linkages, emerging Europe, gdp growth, real gdp, inflation, growth rate, long-term interest rates

This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and...

Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle1

Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle1 »

Source: Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle

Volume/Issue: 2010/71

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Cemile Sancak , Jing Xing , and Ricardo Velloso

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2010

ISBN: 9781451982145

Keywords: tax revenue forecasting, business cycle, tax revenue efficiency, C-efficiency, VAT elasticity, vat, tax revenue, tax evasion, tax base, tax burden,

This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. We find a positive and significant relationship between these variables; r...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201891.001

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Growth Forecast Errors and  Fiscal Multipliers

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers »

Volume/Issue: 2013/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475576443.001

ISBN: 9781475576443

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers, growth forecast, fiscal balance, General, General, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated...

Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows

Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows »

Volume/Issue: 2012/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malika Pant , and Yanliang Miao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463937737.001

ISBN: 9781463937737

Keywords: Coincident Indicators, Capital Tracker, net capital flows, net capital, capital inflows, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicato...