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Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap »

Source: Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Volume/Issue: 2001/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Angel Ubide , and Kevin Ross

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

ISBN: 9781451874457

Keywords: Output gaps, unobservable components, inflation, forecasting, annual inflation, equation, survey,

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending o...

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth »

Source: Inflation Targeting and Output Growth : Empirical Evidence for the European Union

Volume/Issue: 2005/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2005

ISBN: 9781451861082

Keywords: inflation, inflation rate, monetary authorities, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic mode...

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?1

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?1 »

Source: Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Volume/Issue: 2013/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Camelia Minoiu , Chanhyun Kang , V.S. Subrahmanian , and Anamaria Berea

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 December 2013

ISBN: 9781475554250

Keywords: financial networks, banking, banking systems, Global Outlook, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Forecasting and Simulation,

The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warnin...

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies »

Source: A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

Volume/Issue: 2015/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zoltan Jakab , Pavel Lukyantsau , and Shengzu Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 March 2015

ISBN: 9781498399609

Keywords: Global projection model, inflation, interest rate, economies, demand, exchange rate, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The...

Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey1

Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey1 »

Source: Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey

Volume/Issue: 2006/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451864090

Keywords: Default probabilities, scoring models, ratings models, probabilities, probability, banking, forecasting, bankrupt, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Financial Economics: General

This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making i...

Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off

Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off »

Source: Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off

Volume/Issue: 2001/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chorng-Huey Wong , Eric Clifton , and Gene Leon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

ISBN: 9781451858105

Keywords: inflation targeting, credibility, Phillips curve, smooth transition regression models, inflation, central bank, monetary fund, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Inflation Targeting Credibility,

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of inflation targeting on the unemployment-inflation trade-off in OECD countries. Theoretical models suggest that the credibility-enhancing effects of the adoption...

On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance

On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance »

Source: On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance : An Empirical Analysis of Spain's Regions

Volume/Issue: 2017/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mar Delgado-Téllez , Victor Lledo , and Javier Pérez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 January 2017

ISBN: 9781475569841

Keywords: Regional economics, State taxation, Fiscal policy, Europe, Spain, Fiscal compliance, rules, fiscal federalism, soft budget constraints, Forecasts of Budgets

This paper proposes an empirical framework that distinguishes voluntary from involuntary compliance with fiscal deficit targets on the basis of economic, institutional, and political factors. The framework is appli...

Bayesian Vars

Bayesian Vars »

Source: Bayesian Vars : A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System

Volume/Issue: 2003/102

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matteo Ciccarelli , and Alessandro Rebucci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2003

ISBN: 9781451852639

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Gibbs sampling, Time- Varying Reaction Function, EMS, forecasting, equation, monetary policy, outliers, covariance, Bayesian Analysis

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology origi...

Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel »

Source: Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

Volume/Issue: 2013/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Salvatore Dell'Erba , and Sergio Sola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2013

ISBN: 9781484394502

Keywords: Real time data, Cross-sectional dependence, Heterogeneous panels, public debt, fiscal stance, budget deficits, fiscal variables, General, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts

This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset...

Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries

Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries »

Source: Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries : What Have We Learned from the Forerunners?

Volume/Issue: 2005/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katerina Smídková , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2005

ISBN: 9781451860467

Keywords: Sustainable real exchange rates, ERM2, exchange rate, exchange rates, real exchange rate, fdi, real exchange rates, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Estimation and simulation of sustainable real exchange rates in some of the new EU accession countries point to potential difficulties in sustaining the ERM2 regime if entered too soon and with weak policies. Accor...