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Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap »

Source: Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Volume/Issue: 2001/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Angel Ubide , and Kevin Ross

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

ISBN: 9781451874457

Keywords: Output gaps, unobservable components, inflation, forecasting, annual inflation, equation, survey,

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending o...

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth »

Source: Inflation Targeting and Output Growth : Empirical Evidence for the European Union

Volume/Issue: 2005/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2005

ISBN: 9781451861082

Keywords: inflation, inflation rate, monetary authorities, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic mode...

Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey1

Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey1 »

Source: Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey

Volume/Issue: 2006/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

ISBN: 9781451864090

Keywords: Default probabilities, scoring models, ratings models, probabilities, probability, banking, forecasting, bankrupt, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Financial Economics: General

This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making i...

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?1

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?1 »

Source: Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Volume/Issue: 2013/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Camelia Minoiu , Chanhyun Kang , V.S. Subrahmanian , and Anamaria Berea

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 December 2013

ISBN: 9781475554250

Keywords: financial networks, banking, banking systems, Global Outlook, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Forecasting and Simulation,

The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warnin...

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies »

Source: A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

Volume/Issue: 2015/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zoltan Jakab , Pavel Lukyantsau , and Shengzu Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 March 2015

ISBN: 9781498399609

Keywords: Global projection model, inflation, interest rate, economies, demand, exchange rate, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The...

Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off

Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off »

Source: Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off

Volume/Issue: 2001/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chorng-Huey Wong , Eric Clifton , and Gene Leon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

ISBN: 9781451858105

Keywords: inflation targeting, credibility, Phillips curve, smooth transition regression models, inflation, central bank, monetary fund, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Inflation Targeting Credibility,

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of inflation targeting on the unemployment-inflation trade-off in OECD countries. Theoretical models suggest that the credibility-enhancing effects of the adoption...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy »

Source: Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

Trade Flows, Multilateral Resistance, and Firm Heterogeneity

Trade Flows, Multilateral Resistance, and Firm Heterogeneity »

Source: Trade Flows, Multilateral Resistance, and Firm Heterogeneity

Volume/Issue: 2012/297

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar , and Benjamin D. Nelson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

ISBN: 9781475574081

Keywords: Gravity models, multilateral resistance, firm heterogeneity, trade costs, trade flows, changes in trade, bilateral trade, exporter, and Firm Heterogeneity, firm heterogeneity.

We present a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance, firm heterogeneity and country-selection into trade, while accommodating asymmetries in trade flows. A new equation for the proportion of export...

Mind the Gap
			: What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area? »

Volume/Issue: 2001/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Angel Ubide , and Kevin Ross

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451874457.001

ISBN: 9781451874457

Keywords: Output gaps, unobservable components, inflation, forecasting, annual inflation, equation, survey,

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending o...

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth
			: Empirical Evidence for the European Union

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth : Empirical Evidence for the European Union »

Volume/Issue: 2005/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451861082.001

ISBN: 9781451861082

Keywords: inflation, inflation rate, monetary authorities, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic mode...