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When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals1

When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals1 »

Source: When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals

Volume/Issue: 2018/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jiro Honda , Rene Tapsoba , and Ismael Issifou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 April 2018

ISBN: 9781484350652

Keywords: Financial crises, Crisis prevention, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Early warning systems, Econometric models, Early warning signal, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal crisis

Should policymakers wait for fiscal crisis early warning signals before repairing the roof? We give an answer to this question by investigating the interlinkages between early warning signals for fiscal crisis, pol...

How Can Fiscal Policy Help Avert Currency Crises?1

How Can Fiscal Policy Help Avert Currency Crises?1 »

Source: How Can Fiscal Policy Help Avert Currency Crises?

Volume/Issue: 2000/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): George Kopits

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2000

ISBN: 9781451859409

Keywords: balance of payments crises, contingent liabilities, currency crisis, fiscal policy rules, fiscal adjustment

An overview of crisis episodes in emerging-market economies with a pegged exchange rate regime in the 1990s suggests that sizable explicit or implicit government deficits, or market perceptions of lack of fiscal su...

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management*

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management* »

Source: Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management

Volume/Issue: 2017/78

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Cristiano Cantore , Paul Levine , Giovanni Melina , and Joseph Pearlman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 March 2017

ISBN: 9781475590180

Keywords: Crisis management, Debt consolidation, Optimal fiscal-monetary policy, long-term debt, fiscal limits, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government's commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, fo...

Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis

Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis »

Source: Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2018/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Correa-Caro , Leandro Medina , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Bennett Sutton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 November 2018

ISBN: 9781484380659

Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, Global Financial Crisis, Worldscope, Firm Profitabilit, Firm Profitability, Models with Panel Data, Deficit

Using financial statement data from the Thomson Reuter's Worldscope database for 22,333 non-financial firms in 52 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus (i.e., changes in structura...

How to Stop a Herd of Running Bears? Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis

How to Stop a Herd of Running Bears? Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis »

Source: How to Stop a Herd of Running Bears? Market Response to Policy Initiatives during the Global Financial Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2009/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

ISBN: 9781451873511

Keywords: Crisis, policy, announcement, event, financial, monetary, fiscal, bank, bank bailouts, recapitalization

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic and financial sector policy announcements in the United States, the United Kingdom, the euro area, and Japan during the recent crisis on interbank credit and liquidit...

The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities

The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities »

Source: The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities

Volume/Issue: 2016/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Elva Bova , Marta Ruiz-Arranz , Frederik Toscani , and H. Elif Ture

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 February 2016

ISBN: 9781498303606

Keywords: Fiscal Crisis, General, All Countries,, Budget deficits, Public debt, Contingent liabilities

We construct the first comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990–2014. We find that contingent liability realizations are a major source of fisc...

Adjustment Under a Currency Peg

Adjustment Under a Currency Peg »

Source: Adjustment Under a Currency Peg : Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania During the Global Financial Crisis 2008-09

Volume/Issue: 2010/213

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catriona Purfield , and Christoph Rosenberg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

ISBN: 9781455205448

Keywords: Internal devaluation, boom bust, competitiveness, wage adjustment, global financial crisis, wage, benefits, wages, fiscal balance,

The paper traces the Baltics' adjustment strategy during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The abrupt end to the externally-financed domestic demand boom triggered a severe output collapse, bringing per capita i...

Performance of Fiscal Accounts in South Africa in a Cross-Country Setting

Performance of Fiscal Accounts in South Africa in a Cross-Country Setting »

Source: Performance of Fiscal Accounts in South Africa in a Cross-Country Setting

Volume/Issue: 2010/217

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Burcu Aydin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

ISBN: 9781455208821

Keywords: structural balance, panel data, tax revenue, financial crisis, global financial crisis, revenue collection, fiscal accounts, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Econometric Modeling: General,

This paper analyzes the cyclical fluctuations in South Africa in a cross-country context, and studies the impact of the output gap by controlling for export intensity, the debt burden, asset prices, and banking cri...

Assessing Fiscal Stress

Assessing Fiscal Stress »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Stress

Volume/Issue: 2011/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriela Dobrescu , Iva Petrova , Nazim Belhocine , and Emanuele Baldacci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2011

ISBN: 9781455254316

Keywords: fiscal stress, fiscal vulnerability, public debt crises, sovereign default, public debt, fiscal indicators, fiscal crisis, fiscal variables, National Deficit Surplus, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal str...

Getting the Dog to Bark

Getting the Dog to Bark »

Source: Getting the Dog to Bark : Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector

Volume/Issue: 2015/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Timothy Irwin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2015

ISBN: 9781513507736

Keywords: Implicit guarantees, fiscal risks, financial crisis, budget reports, guarantees, debt, liabilities, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt,

Fiscal reporting is intended to warn of fiscal crises while there is still time to prevent them. The recent crisis thus seems to reveal a failure of fiscal reporting: before the crisis, even reports on fiscal risk...