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This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth1

This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth1 »

Source: This Time They Are Different : Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

Volume/Issue: 2013/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Markus Eberhardt , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 December 2013

ISBN: 9781484309285

Keywords: growth, common factor model, asymmetric ARDL, debt stock, debt terms, debt threshold, debt term, Models with Panel Data, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relat...

Systemic Real and Financial Risks

Systemic Real and Financial Risks »

Source: Systemic Real and Financial Risks : Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing

Volume/Issue: 2012/58

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcella Lucchetta , and Gianni De Nicolo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463937768

Keywords: Systemic Risks, Dynamic Factor Model, Quantile Auto-regressions, Density Forecasts, forecasting, bank credit, banking, probability, Econometric Modeling, Business Fluctuations

This paper formulates a novel modeling framework that delivers: (a) forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk based on density forecasts of indicators of real activity and financial...

Deconstructing the International Business Cycle

Deconstructing the International Business Cycle »

Source: Deconstructing the International Business Cycle : Why does a U.S. sneeze give the rest of the world a cold?

Volume/Issue: 2010/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

ISBN: 9781455209392

Keywords: international business cycles, identification, structural VAR, business cycle, real gdp, correlation, standard errors, statistics, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, International Factor Movements and International Business: General

The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced c...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Source: Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...

This Time They Are Different
			: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

This Time They Are Different : Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2013/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Markus Eberhardt , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484309285.001

ISBN: 9781484309285

Keywords: growth, common factor model, asymmetric ARDL, debt stock, debt terms, debt threshold, debt term, Models with Panel Data, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relat...

Deconstructing the International Business Cycle
			: Why does a U.S. sneeze give the rest of the world a cold?

Deconstructing the International Business Cycle : Why does a U.S. sneeze give the rest of the world a cold? »

Volume/Issue: 2010/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209392.001

ISBN: 9781455209392

Keywords: international business cycles, identification, structural VAR, business cycle, real gdp, correlation, standard errors, statistics, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, International Factor Movements and International Business: General

The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced c...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463903497.001

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...