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The Comovement in Commodity Prices

The Comovement in Commodity Prices »

Source: The Comovement in Commodity Prices : Sources and Implications

Volume/Issue: 2013/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ron Alquist , and Olivier Coibion

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 June 2013

ISBN: 9781484378144

Keywords: comovement, factor models, factor analysis, global production, agricultural commodities, idiosyncratic shocks, International Business Cycles, comovement: factor models,

We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the co...

Are Financial Crises Alike?

Are Financial Crises Alike? »

Source: Are Financial Crises Alike?

Volume/Issue: 2010/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chrismin Tang , Mardi Dungey , Vance Martin , Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo , and Renee Fry

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2010

ISBN: 9781451962086

Keywords: Contagion, Factor models, bond, bonds, bond markets, stock markets,

This paper investigates whether financial crises are alike by considering whether a single modeling framework can fit multiple distinct crises in which contagion effects link markets across national borders and ass...

Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles

Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles »

Source: Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles

Volume/Issue: 2006/49

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann , Luis Catão , and Marco Aiolfi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2006

ISBN: 9781451863093

Keywords: Factor Models, business cycle, equation, real gdp, statistics,

This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financi...

Trade Patterns Among Industrial Countries

Trade Patterns Among Industrial Countries »

Source: Trade Patterns Among Industrial Countries : Their Relationship to Technology Differences and Capital Mobility

Volume/Issue: 2004/23

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mika Saito

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2004

ISBN: 9781451844078

Keywords: total factor productivity, labor productivity, capital mobility, neoclassical trade model, equation, statistic, cointegration, correlation, total factor prod,

This paper compares two alternative measures of technology differences across industrial countries during 1970-92: one measures differences in labor productivity (the Ricardian measure), and the other differences i...

Tales From Two Neighbors

Tales From Two Neighbors »

Source: Tales From Two Neighbors : Productivity Growth in Canada and the United States

Volume/Issue: 2000/169

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Cerisola , and Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2000

ISBN: 9781451858334

Keywords: Equipment Investment, General Equilibrium Model, isp, tfp, total factor productivity, technologies, growth rate

This paper assesses productivity trends in Canada vis-a-vis the United States from two perspectives. The first one is based on estimates of total factor productivity. The second one decomposes productivity growth i...

A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI) »

Source: A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

Volume/Issue: 2015/20

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Karim Barhoumi , and Laurent Ferrara

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 January 2015

ISBN: 9781498307543

Keywords: factor models., trade, growth rate, variables, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor's benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI...

Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America

Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America »

Source: Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America

Volume/Issue: 2009/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruy Lama

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

ISBN: 9781451872149

Keywords: Business cycle accounting, DSGE models, small open economy, tfp, bond, business cycle, total factor productivity,

This paper evaluates what type of models can account for the recent episodes of output drops in Latin America. I develop an open economy version of the business cycle accounting methodology (Chari, Kehoe, and McGra...

Flying to Paradise

Flying to Paradise »

Source: Flying to Paradise

Volume/Issue: 2016/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Acevedo Mejia , Lu Han , Marie Kim , and Nicole Laframboise

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2016

ISBN: 9781498375108

Keywords: airlift supply factors, tourist, tourist arrivals, airlines, tourists, Time-Series Models, Models with Panel Data,, Aviation, Caribbean, United States

This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlin...

Endowment Versus Finance

Endowment Versus Finance »

Source: Endowment Versus Finance : A Wooden Barrel Theory of International Trade

Volume/Issue: 2005/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jiandong Ju , and Shang-Jin Wei

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2005

ISBN: 9781451861426

Keywords: External Finance, Factor Endowment, Financial Development, HOS model, Wooden Barrel, external capital, capital market, capital owners, Neoclassical Models of Trade, Financial Institutions and Services: General,

This paper develops a theory of international trade in which financial development and factor endowments jointly determine comparative advantage. We apply the financial contract model of Holmstrom and Tirole (1998)...

Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy

Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy »

Source: Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy

Volume/Issue: 2010/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcella Lucchetta , and Gianni De Nicolo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451962567

Keywords: Dynamic Factor Model, Quantile Regressions, bank credit, forecasting, banking, bank lending, Econometric Modeling, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, financial Institutions And Services,

This paper presents a modeling framework that delivers joint forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk, as well as stress-tests of these indicators as impulse responses to structural...