International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
2019 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Request for Completion of the Financing Assurances Review, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Releases; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Barbados
A banking system module is incorporated into the Central Bank of Barbados's multisectoral macroeconomic forecasting model, and a medium-term forecast is generated for bank capitalization, profitability, liquidity and nonperforming loans. Stress tests are performed for the first year of the forecast, to test the banking system's resilience to real sector shocks. The analysis, which would in practice be only part of the vulnerability assessment, indicates that the banking system is stable and resilient to macroeconomic shocks of a type and magnitude that Barbados has experienced in the past.
The global crisis has hit Barbados front and center. The broad economic weakness has hurt the labor market, while inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The major challenge ahead is to put public debt on a steady declining path to support both domestic and external stability. A decisive fiscal adjustment is the best way to protect the exchange rate peg while the current monetary stance is broadly appropriate. Banks remain healthy, but tighter regulations are needed. Supervision of nonbank financial institutions needs to be revamped.