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Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy

Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy »

Source: Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy

Volume/Issue: 2011/75

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Miguel Segoviano Basurto , and Raphael Espinoza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2011

ISBN: 9781455227044

Keywords: Price of risk, CDS, risk-neutral probability, probability, probabilities, equation, probability of default, conditional expectation,

We propose an original method to estimate the market price of risk under stress, which is needed to correct for risk aversion the CDS-implied probabilities of distress. The method is based, for simplicity, on a one...

Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises: Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-ins or Official Transfers?

Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises: Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-ins or Official Transfers? »

Source: Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises : Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-ins or Official Transfers?

Volume/Issue: 2015/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Damiano Sandri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513569246

Keywords: Sovereign default, bail-ins, transfers, debt, creditors, sovereign debt, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, General, All Countries,

The paper presents a tractable model to understand how international financial institutions (IFIs) should deal with the sovereign debt crisis of a systemic country, in which case private creditors' bail-ins entail...

Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries

Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 2

Volume: 54

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 September 2007

ISBN: 9781589066502

Keywords: current account, current account deficit, current account deficits, current account surplus, current account surpluses, Benchmarking (finance), Bond Market, Business Cycles. Econometric Models, Consumption (economics), Default (finance)

Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is...

International Financial Integration and the Real Economy

International Financial Integration and the Real Economy »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 2

Volume: 54

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 September 2007

ISBN: 9781589066502

Keywords: current account, current account deficit, current account deficits, current account surplus, current account surpluses, Benchmarking (finance), Bond Market, Business Cycles. Econometric Models, Consumption (economics), Default (finance)

Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is...

Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis?

Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis? »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 2

Volume: 54

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 September 2007

ISBN: 9781589066502

Keywords: current account, current account deficit, current account deficits, current account surplus, current account surpluses, Benchmarking (finance), Bond Market, Business Cycles. Econometric Models, Consumption (economics), Default (finance)

Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is...

Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined?

Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined? »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 2

Volume: 54

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 September 2007

ISBN: 9781589066502

Keywords: current account, current account deficit, current account deficits, current account surplus, current account surpluses, Benchmarking (finance), Bond Market, Business Cycles. Econometric Models, Consumption (economics), Default (finance)

Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is...

Will the Doha Round Lead to Preference Erosion?

Will the Doha Round Lead to Preference Erosion? »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 2

Volume: 54

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 September 2007

ISBN: 9781589066502

Keywords: current account, current account deficit, current account deficits, current account surplus, current account surpluses, Benchmarking (finance), Bond Market, Business Cycles. Econometric Models, Consumption (economics), Default (finance)

Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is...

Money-Based vs. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: Is There Room for Political Opportunism?

Money-Based vs. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: Is There Room for Political Opportunism? »

Source: IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 2

Volume: 54

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 September 2007

ISBN: 9781589066502

Keywords: current account, current account deficit, current account deficits, current account surplus, current account surpluses, Benchmarking (finance), Bond Market, Business Cycles. Econometric Models, Consumption (economics), Default (finance)

Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is...

CDS Spreads in European Periphery

CDS Spreads in European Periphery »

Source: CDS Spreads in European Periphery : Some Technical Issues to Consider

Volume/Issue: 2012/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manmohan Singh , and Mohsan Bilal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502299

Keywords: CDS spreads, peripheral Europe, stochastic recovery rate, probability of default, collateral use in OTC derivatives, price of risk, otc, bonds, derivative, bond

This paper looks at some technical issues when using CDS data, and if these are incorporated, the analysis or regression results are likely to benefit. The paper endorses the use of stochastic recovery in CDS model...

The New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring

The New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring »

Source: The New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring : Setting the Incentives Right

Volume/Issue: 2002/4

Series: IMF Policy Discussion Papers

Author(s): Carlo Sdralevich , and Biaggio Bossone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2002

ISBN: 9781451973594

Keywords: Financial crisis, Crisis resolution, International financial markets, Private sector, Private sector involvement, sovereign debt, debt default, debt, debt sustainability, debt restructuring

The paper discusses key incentive-related issues of the sovereign debt restructuring mechanism recently outlined by the IMF First Deputy Managing Director. The structure of incentives in the mechanism should be con...