Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Miguel Messmacher , and Mark Kruger
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 March 2004
Keywords: early warning indicators, probability, debt service, current account, correlation, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance, Financial Institutions and Services,
We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default...