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The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , Peter Wickham , Mohsin Khan , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 September 1994

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557754127.084

ISBN: 9781557754127

Keywords: commodity prices, export earnings, commodity exports, non-oil commodity, export taxes

This paper analyzes global commodity trends and concludes that the marked decline in real commodity prices of the past decade should be regarded as largely permanent and irreversible. The authors contend that the a...

Commodity Prices

Commodity Prices »

Source: Commodity Prices : Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?

Volume/Issue: 1994/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Wickham , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1994

ISBN: 9781451842371

Keywords: commodity prices, export earnings, hedging, terms of trade, commodity agreements

Primary commodities still account for the bulk of exports in many developing countries. However, real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s and there is evidence of renewed...

World Commodity Prices as a Forecasting Tool for Retail Prices

World Commodity Prices as a Forecasting Tool for Retail Prices »

Source: World Commodity Prices as a Forecasting Tool for Retail Prices : Evidence From the United Kingdom

Volume/Issue: 1997/70

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Thornton , and Alicia García-Herrero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 1997

ISBN: 9781451960471

Keywords: Commodity prices, inflation, monetary authorities, inflation targeting, aggregate demand

This paper investigates, using cointegration and Granger-causality techniques, whether a stable long-run co-movement exists between world commodity prices and U.K. retail prices, and whether short-run changes in co...

Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices »

Source: Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Volume/Issue: 1999/155

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): C. McDermott , Paul Cashin , and Alasdair Scott

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1999

ISBN: 9781451857290

Keywords: Commodity prices, booms and slumps, cycles, duration, amplitude., london metal exchange, oil prices, commodity markets, import price

This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger...

The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices

The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices »

Source: The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices

Volume/Issue: 1999/169

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): C. McDermott , Alasdair Scott , and Paul Cashin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1999

ISBN: 9781451858327

Keywords: Commodity prices, concordance, comovement, statistic, time series, correlation, statistics

There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measure...

Appendix

Appendix »

Source: The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , Peter Wickham , Mohsin Khan , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 September 1994

ISBN: 9781557754127

Keywords: commodity prices, export earnings, commodity exports, non-oil commodity, export taxes

Table A1. Country Groupings for Charts 2 and 3...

I Introduction

I Introduction »

Source: The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , Peter Wickham , Mohsin Khan , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 September 1994

ISBN: 9781557754127

Keywords: commodity prices, export earnings, commodity exports, non-oil commodity, export taxes

The need to understand the factors that influence the behavior of commodity prices has taken on a special urgency in recent years, as nonoil real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously sinc...

II Characteristics of Commodity Price Behavior

II Characteristics of Commodity Price Behavior »

Source: The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , Peter Wickham , Mohsin Khan , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 September 1994

ISBN: 9781557754127

Keywords: commodity prices, export earnings, commodity exports, non-oil commodity, export taxes

The principal aim of this section is to assess the nature of commodity price shocks and to determine to what extent the recent weakness in commodity prices is associated with reversible cyclical forces, or i...

III Determinants of Commodity Price Movements

III Determinants of Commodity Price Movements »

Source: The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , Peter Wickham , Mohsin Khan , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 September 1994

ISBN: 9781557754127

Keywords: commodity prices, export earnings, commodity exports, non-oil commodity, export taxes

Assessing the evolution of commodity prices by applying time-series methods has shed some light on the persistence and increased volatility of shocks in commodity markets. This section complements those find...

IV Policy Issues

IV Policy Issues »

Source: The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , Peter Wickham , Mohsin Khan , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 September 1994

ISBN: 9781557754127

Keywords: commodity prices, export earnings, commodity exports, non-oil commodity, export taxes

The previous sections of the paper have examined how commodity prices have behaved over recent years and discussed possible explanations for the observed behavior. Both the volatility in real commodity price...