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The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America

The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America »

Source: The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America

Volume/Issue: 2007/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jeronimo Zettelmeyer , and Pär Österholm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2007

ISBN: 9781451867404

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, world growth, bond, bond spread,

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1994 to 2...

Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads »

Source: Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads : Estimation and Back-testing

Volume/Issue: 2012/212

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

ISBN: 9781475505627

Keywords: Emerging economies, sovereign bond yield spreads, in-sample forecasts, bond, bond spreads, sovereign bond, bond spread, sovereign bonds,

We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spre...

Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads »

Source: Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads : The Role of Political Institutions

Volume/Issue: 2010/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , and Markus Bruckner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455202133

Keywords: Sovereign Bond Spread, Political Institutions, sovereign bond, sovereign bonds, bond, bond spreads, bonds,

We examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 30 emerging market economies during the period 1997-2007. Our main finding...

'Beneficial' Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations

'Beneficial' Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations »

Source: 'Beneficial' Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations

Volume/Issue: 2008/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ran Bi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

ISBN: 9781451869002

Keywords: debt renegotiation, stochastic bargaining, renegotiation delays, bond, bond spreads,

Delays in debt restructuring negotiations are widely regarded as inefficient. This paper argues that delays can allow the economy to recover from a crisis, make more resources available for debt settlement, and ena...

Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues

Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues »

Source: Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues

Volume/Issue: 2017/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anastasia Guscina , Sheheryar Malik , and Michael Papaioannou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2017

ISBN: 9781484324936

Keywords: Market Access, Sovereign Debt Restructuring; Default; Bond Spreads, Sovereign Debt Restructuring, Default, Bond Spreads, Assessing Loss of Market Access:

Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA lea...

Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets

Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets »

Source: Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets

Volume/Issue: 2004/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy , and Andrea Pescatori

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451846447

Keywords: Bond spreads, debt crisis, bond, debt crises, sovereign bond, bonds, Financial Institutions and Services: General,

Crises on external sovereign debt are typically defined as defaults. Such a definition accurately captures debt-servicing difficulties in the 1980s, a period of numerous defaults on bank loans. However, defining de...

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?*

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?* »

Source: How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

Volume/Issue: 2016/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jacopo Cimadomo , Peter Claeys , and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 May 2016

ISBN: 9781484362068

Keywords: market expectations, sovereign bond spreads, survey data, Consensus Economics.

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 201...

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads »

Source: Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads : Fundamentals vs Financial Stress

Volume/Issue: 2010/281

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Iva Petrova , Michael Papaioannou , and Dimitri Bellas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2010

ISBN: 9781455210886

Keywords: Sovereign bond spreads, Emerging markts, sovereign bond, bond, bond spreads, external debt, current account, International Lending and Debt Problems, Money And Interest Rates,

This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. D...

How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Economic Conditions in Emerging Markets?

How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Economic Conditions in Emerging Markets? »

Source: How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Economic Conditions in Emerging Markets?

Volume/Issue: 2000/148

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Arora , and Martin Cerisola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2000

ISBN: 9781451856811

Keywords: U.S. monetary policy, sovereign bond spreads, herding, contagion, Multimod, sovereign bond, bond, debt service, external debt

This paper quantifies the economic impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on emerging market countries. We explore empirically how country risk, as proxied by sovereign bond spreads, is influenced by U.S. moneta...

The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads1

The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads1 »

Source: The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Volume/Issue: 2017/74

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sangyup Choi , and Yuko Hashimoto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 March 2017

ISBN: 9781475589603

Keywords: data transparency, structural reforms, sovereign bond spreads, GDDS, SDDS, event study, General

We find that data transparency policy reforms, reflected in subscriptions to the IMF's Data Standards Initiatives (SDDS and GDDS), reduce the spreads of emerging market sovereign bonds. To overcome endogeneity issu...