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How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?*

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?* »

Source: How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

Volume/Issue: 2016/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jacopo Cimadomo , Peter Claeys , and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 May 2016

ISBN: 9781484362068

Keywords: market expectations, sovereign bond spreads, survey data, Consensus Economics.

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 201...

Italian Sovereign Spreads

Italian Sovereign Spreads »

Source: Italian Sovereign Spreads : Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions

Volume/Issue: 2013/84

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Edda Zoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 April 2013

ISBN: 9781484357705

Keywords: Italian sovereign spreads, bank funding costs, lending conditions, bond, bonds, government bond, bond yields, bond spreads, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Asset Pricing,

Volatility in Italian sovereign spreads has increased since mid-2011. This paper finds that news on the euro area debt crisis and country specific events were important drivers of sovereign spreads. Movements in so...

Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk

Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk »

Source: Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk : Evidence From Advanced Economies During the Financial Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2012/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emre Alper , Lorenzo Forni , and Marc Gerard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463931865

Keywords: bond, arbitrage, bonds, stock prices, Advanced Economies, Sovereign Spreads, Fiscal Risks,

We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RA...

Sovereign Spreads

Sovereign Spreads »

Source: Sovereign Spreads : Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?

Volume/Issue: 2010/120

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Miguel Segoviano Basurto , Carlos Caceres , and Vincenzo Guzzo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

ISBN: 9781455200795

Keywords: Sovereign spreads, contagion, market price of risk, probability, bond, bonds, bond yields, probabilities, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)

Over the past year, euro area sovereign spreads have exhibited an unprecedented degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these large movements reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion (ii) country-...

CDS Spreads in European Periphery

CDS Spreads in European Periphery »

Source: CDS Spreads in European Periphery : Some Technical Issues to Consider

Volume/Issue: 2012/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manmohan Singh , and Mohsan Bilal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502299

Keywords: CDS spreads, peripheral Europe, stochastic recovery rate, probability of default, collateral use in OTC derivatives, price of risk, otc, bonds, derivative, bond

This paper looks at some technical issues when using CDS data, and if these are incorporated, the analysis or regression results are likely to benefit. The paper endorses the use of stochastic recovery in CDS model...

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jacopo Cimadomo , Peter Claeys , and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 May 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484362068.001

ISBN: 9781484362068

Keywords: market expectations, sovereign bond spreads, survey data, Consensus Economics.

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 201...

Italian Sovereign Spreads
			: Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions

Italian Sovereign Spreads : Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions »

Volume/Issue: 2013/84

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Edda Zoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 April 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357705.001

ISBN: 9781484357705

Keywords: Italian sovereign spreads, bank funding costs, lending conditions, bond, bonds, government bond, bond yields, bond spreads, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Asset Pricing,

Volatility in Italian sovereign spreads has increased since mid-2011. This paper finds that news on the euro area debt crisis and country specific events were important drivers of sovereign spreads. Movements in so...

Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk
			: Evidence From Advanced Economies During the Financial Crisis

Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk : Evidence From Advanced Economies During the Financial Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2012/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emre Alper , Lorenzo Forni , and Marc Gerard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463931865.001

ISBN: 9781463931865

Keywords: bond, arbitrage, bonds, stock prices, Advanced Economies, Sovereign Spreads, Fiscal Risks,

We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RA...

Sovereign Spreads
			: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?

Sovereign Spreads : Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals? »

Volume/Issue: 2010/120

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Miguel Segoviano Basurto , Carlos Caceres , and Vincenzo Guzzo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455200795.001

ISBN: 9781455200795

Keywords: Sovereign spreads, contagion, market price of risk, probability, bond, bonds, bond yields, probabilities, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)

Over the past year, euro area sovereign spreads have exhibited an unprecedented degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these large movements reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion (ii) country-...

CDS Spreads in European Periphery
			: Some Technical Issues to Consider

CDS Spreads in European Periphery : Some Technical Issues to Consider »

Volume/Issue: 2012/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manmohan Singh , and Mohsan Bilal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502299.001

ISBN: 9781475502299

Keywords: CDS spreads, peripheral Europe, stochastic recovery rate, probability of default, collateral use in OTC derivatives, price of risk, otc, bonds, derivative, bond

This paper looks at some technical issues when using CDS data, and if these are incorporated, the analysis or regression results are likely to benefit. The paper endorses the use of stochastic recovery in CDS model...