This paper sets out Management’s response to the Independent Evaluation Office’s (IEO) report entitled Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF: An IEO Evaluation.
The implementation plan proposes specific actions to address the recommendations of the IEO that were endorsed by the Board in its March 17, 2016 discussion of the IEO’s report, namely: (i) develop a long-term strategy for data and statistics at the Fund;
(ii) define and prioritize the Fund’s data needs and support data provision by member countries accordingly; (iii) reconsider the role and mandate of the Statistics Department; (iv) reexamine the staff’s structure of incentives in the area of data management;
(v) make clear the limits of IMF responsibility regarding the quality of disseminated data, and clarify the distinction between “IMF data” and “official data.”
The implementation of some of these proposed actions is already underway. The paper also explains how implementation will be monitored.
Sandile Hlatshwayo, Anne Oeking, Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, David Corvino, Ananya Shukla, and Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it—and its effects—inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time variation due to the sticky nature of perception-based measures, reliance on a limited pool of experts, and an inability to distinguish between corruption and institutional capacity gaps. This paper attempts to address these limitations by leveraging news media coverage of corruption. We contribute to the literature by constructing the first big data, cross-country news flow indices of corruption (NIC) and anti-corruption (anti-NIC) by running country-specific search algorithms over more than 665 million international news articles. These indices correlate well with existing measures of corruption but offer additional richness in their time-series variation. Drawing on theory from the corporate finance and behavioral economics literature, we also test to what extent news about corruption and anti-corruption efforts affects economic agents’ assessments of corruption and, in turn, economic outcomes. We find that NIC shocks appear to negatively impact both financial (e.g., stock market returns and yield spreads) and real variables (e.g., growth), albeit with some country heterogeneity. On average, NIC shocks lower real per capita GDP growth by 3 percentage points over a two-year period, illustrating persistence in the effect of such shocks. Conversely, there is suggestive evidence that anti-NIC efforts appear to have a sustained positive macro impact only when paired with meaningful institutional strengthening, proxied by capacity development efforts.
Eric A. Posner, Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, Thomas Ramge, and John Tutino
ECONOMICS SAYS THAT bailouts are bad because they beget moral hazard—that is, they shield those involved from risk, which encourages recklessness. Politics seems to agree: the no-more-bailouts sentiment was a driving force behind the 2010 massive US financial reform legislation known as the Dodd-Frank Act. The global financial crisis’s 10th anniverary raises the question of whether we are better poised to deal with future crises. Eric Posner’s response is a resounding no.