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New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time »

Source: New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

Volume/Issue: 2011/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

ISBN: 9781455218998

Keywords: Nowcasting, Short-term forecasting, Real-time data, gdp growth, forecasting, real gdp, equation, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle...

How much should I hold?  Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands »

Source: How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

Volume/Issue: 2012/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nkunde Mwase

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

ISBN: 9781475505559

Keywords: Logit and quantile regression, Islands, EMP, Deleveraging, reserve holdings, short-term debt, current account, balance of payments, exchange rate regimes, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation

This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. I...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Source: Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time »

Volume/Issue: 2011/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455218998.001

ISBN: 9781455218998

Keywords: Nowcasting, Short-term forecasting, Real-time data, gdp growth, forecasting, real gdp, equation, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle...

How much should I hold?  Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands »

Volume/Issue: 2012/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nkunde Mwase

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505559.001

ISBN: 9781475505559

Keywords: Logit and quantile regression, Islands, EMP, Deleveraging, reserve holdings, short-term debt, current account, balance of payments, exchange rate regimes, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation

This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. I...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875256.001

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...